US corn prices lower on more area; India maize sowing lags; Price dips on import news; DDGS is a good buy

CBOT - Sept Corn - Friday, Jul 01, 2016There has been lobbying efforts from the actual users with the government of India to allow import of maize as the prices are high. Average delivered prices reached a high of Rs.18500/Mt in come consumption centers. There has been some agreement that TRQ may be allocated to PEC to import 500,000 MT of maize and this has led to some stability in the market and prices did drop in the futures as well as the spot markets, especially Gulabbagh. But the drop was not much (0.46%) to Rs.15655/MT and this could be temporary correction. Nizamabad prices were up by 2.59% to Rs.17328/MT; Karimnagar up 2.66% to RS.17366/MT; Sangli up 0.54% to Rs.18600/MT and Davangere down 0.14%to Rs.17650/MT. Futures contracts were down by 5%, Jul down 5.16% to Rs.15620/MT; Aug down 5.17% to Rs.15960/MT; Sept down 5.09% top Rs.16230/MT; Oct down 4.84% to Rs.14730/MT. Overall sowing for maize in India is also lagging behind by 21%. Overall deficiency on monsoon in Jun is 11%, but there is hope that there will be pickup in July and that could boost sowing.

 In the US, the prices dropped as USDA report projected that the farmers have planted more corn and there is more corn in the inventory as well. Total corn acres planted in US were 7% higher than last year at 94.148 million acres. This is also the third higher planting since 1944. On the stock side, corn stocks on June 01, were 119.88 MMT, 6% higher than year ago. The disappearance for the period Mar-May was 78.74 MMT, down 6% in the same period year ago. Corn futures were down between 7-8% due to the report. Jul contract down 8.17% to $138.97/MT; Sept down 7.46%to $141.72/MT and Dec down 6.90% to $144.48/MT. Mar corn closed at $148.02/MT on Friday, July 01, 2016. On the crop progress, almost 75% of the US corn crops in in good to excellent condition, which in the previous year was 69%.

Lower prices on CBOT did reflect on the FOB values too and prices were indicated down at $178-186/MT (US Gulf); $176-188/MT (US PNW) for the period Jul-Sept. US #2 corn, delivered to Asia is now indicated at $202-210/MT. Argentine and Brazilian prices were within the same range as US at $176-187/Mt FOB, for the period July – Sept and Black Sea corn on FOB basis was $180-183/MT.

Lower corn prices now, would reflect lower prices on DDGS as well in the next two month period and certainly the demand of DDGS is also increasing in the world market. While current FOB prices of DDGS in US Gulf/PNW was indicated at $215 and 212/Mt respectively, for Sept delivery the price was indicated at $210/MT. Delivered price of DDGS to SEA region (Vietnam) was $257-249/MT and to China $248-242/Mt for the period July-Sept. Container rates, as per a report remain low and could give much advantage to the destination markets. On the other side, SBM prices did see an upward rally and CNF prices to Asia were indicated at $505-510/MT, about $25/Mt higher than last week. CGM prices remain stable at $615/Mt and indicated lower at $610/MT (FOB) in Aug-Sept.

Not much of US malting barley is available but feed barley prices are good and stable at $185-190/MT (FOB). Argentine feed barley prices are much lower at $147/MT.

U.S. ethanol production is remains strong and it is estimated that 2.67 MMT of corn is being used evert week to produce ethanol. Overall projection is that US would use 133.35 MMT of corn to produce ethanol, but the weekly use is higher. As on date 110.23 MMT of corn has been used to make ethanol. Ethanol prices were up last week, Jul up 2.13% to $0.431/liter; Aug up 1.71% to $0.425/liter; Sept up 1.48% to $0.419/liter and Oct up 0.91% to $0.409/Liter.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Good growing conditions and brexit, bring US corn prices down; India corn prices continue to move up, sowing lags, enough time to make up

July Corn - Jun 25, 2016Following Brexit vote, coupled with very good growing conditions in the US, the corn prices were down considerably. While following the vote, the markets dropped faster, there was some uptrend, but overall, corn turned cheap in the US. Jul contract down 12.16% to $151.33/MT; Sept down 12.11% to 153.44/MT; Dec down 12.13% to $155.19/MT. Following the downtrend on CBOT, FOB prices have also softened and were indicated in the range $185-195/MT (For both US Gulf and PNW for the period July-Sept. Argentina/Brazil origin corn is prices at $183-186/MT July delivery and Black sea corn at $202/MT or higher on FOB basis. The growing conditions in the US remain very good and about 75% of the crop is in good to excellent condition.

As the corn prices in the US dropped, DDGS followed and is currently priced on FOB basis (US Gulf) at $212/Mt (July) and $207/MT (Sep). Delivered price of Vietnam $278-263/Mt (July-Spet) and To China $285-260/MT (July-Sep).  The protein co-products, CGM price was down $10/MT to $615/Mt (FOB). US SBM is priced at $438-444/MT (48% protein) and 46.5% Protein SBM delivered price to Asia is indicated at $480-484/MT.

US ethanol price too is down by about 4.8% following drop in corn prices. On CBOT, US ethanol’s prices between $0.422/litre in July  to $0.405/litre in Oct 2016. China continue to buy US ethanol and from Jan-April 2016 has bought 416 million litres at an average FOB price of $0.44/litre. 

The tender for 50,000 MT of Non GM corn import last week was opened and one bid of $254-255/MT  (CNF Gujarat ports) was received. This is high price as there is not much corn available in Ukraine which supplied corn to India earlier. Indian maize prices continue to move up on futures as well as the spot markets. Jun contract expired on Jun 20, 2016, up 1.05% to Rs.15360/MT; Jul up 6.67% to Rs.164760/MT; Aug up 6.52% to Rs.16830/MT; Sept 6.81% to Rs.17100/MT Oct up 5.31% to Rs.15480/MT. Oct is the first of the Khariff Contracts and in one week say an increase. Spot prices in key markets to were up on demand from poultry and starch sector and also based own the higher import price of corn from the world market. Nizamand up 4.36% to Rs.16890/Mt; Davangere up 2.61% to Rs.17675/MT; Karimnagar up 3.62%to Rs.16916/MT, Sangli up 5.11% to Rs.18500/MT and Gulabbagh up 8.63% to Rs.15727/MT. Delivered price top South India (Tamil Nadu, poultry hub) remain high at Rs.18250/MT. Maize sowing at this time is lagging by about 11% against last year, Bajra and Small millets is up by 62% and 24% respectively. Soybean sowing is down by 86% at this time. It is still too early to say how much corn will be sown, now that the entire India is covered by monsoon, the pace of sowing could increase.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

India maize prices up; US corn prices up on hot weather, DDGS prices follow; US Sorghum priced little lower than corn

India corn prices continue upward swing. In the past one week prices have been up by 2 – 8% in different markets.Nizamabad up 2.06% to Rs.16185/MT; Davangere up 3.98% to Rs.17225/MT; Karimnagar up 2.03% to 1632/MT; Sangli up 0.57% to Rs.17600/MT and Gulabbagh up 8.11% to Rs.14478/MT. In the three week period, starting May 27, 2016, prices in Gulabbagh have have gone up by 10.39%,  followed by Davangere up 7.99%.  Future prices too continues o move uo from 4-7%. Jun contract up 6.59% to Rs.15200/MT; Jul up 4.89% to Rs.15440/MT; Aug up 4.57% to Rs.15800/Mt and Sept up 4.37% to Rs.16010/MT. UP corn which started selling Rs.13400/MT at the start of the season, within one week, the prices are now Rs.14000/MT. With the monsoon deficiency widening at 25% and sowing yet to start in many pockets, it could mean a long wait for new corn. Demand by poultry remains strong as the chicken and egg prices are good.

CBOT corn - July 2016 - 17 Jun 2016US corn prices too moved up this week as hot weather has hit US. Though it may not damage the corn, but it will be a weather market from now on. The corn has been planted and 96% corn is in fair to excellent condition. Jul Corn on CBOT closed 3.45% higher at $172.77/MT; Sept up 3.53% at $174.24/MT and Dec up 4.14%to Rs.176.60/MT. With these prices, the FOB prices too moved up by 2% none week and 12% over a 3 week period to $196/MT (July) – $206/MT (Sept (US Gulf). PNW FOB prices were indicated t $201-207/Mt (Jul-Sept period). If the hot weather persists in the US, prices may remain higher and/or move up.  Argentine/Brazilian corn was indicated at $197-205/MT (FOB respective port)

Starch industry approached PEC to assist them in importing 50,000 MT of NON GM corn against advance license. This would mean that the importers will not pay any duty, but will have to export value added products against this import. The big question though would be from where the corn would be imported and at what price stop be feasible. Information available suggests that prices of corn in Ukraine are higher as the availability is poor. Black Sea corn on FOB basis is indicated at $198-202/MT, French $205/MT and Romanian at $208/MT. US corn#2 delivered to Asia is being indicated at $221-224/MT, but India insists on Non GM corn and hence the prices will be higher. Poultry industry on the other side could look at Sorghum, which is priced lower than US corn at $195/Mt (Aug FOB), where as Aug Corn is priced at $199/MT (FOB – US Gulf). Sept Sorghum is stable at $195/MT, while corn is indicated at $209/MT.

The protein prices remain up, especially SBM in US at $467-475 (FOB) and CNF Asia $495-505/MT. South American SBM was indicated at $437-445/MT (FOB). As protein prices have moved up, corn prices are up, DDGS and CGM prices have followed suit and indicated at $242/MT and $625/MT respectively. DDGS prices of FOB basis moved up by $10/Mt in one week and CGM by $5/MT. DDGS delivered Vietnam was indicated at $270/Mt to China at $275/MT in July.

For Indian end users, especially poultry, if the rain is delayed as it is, sowing pace remains slow the other grain prices have started to move up. Bajra (Pearl Millet) and Broken Rice is priced at Rs.17500/MT. De Oiled Rice Bran is priced at Rs.14000/MT.

Barley prices in India too are up at Rs.16500-17000/MT. Demand for malting barley remains strong. US Malting Barley is priced at $180-187/MT in the terminals. Feed Barley from Argentina on FOB basis is indicated at $158-163/MT and US feed Barley at $195-200/MT.

US ethanol prices moved up by 1.7-2% this week as the corn prices have moved up. July up 2.07% to 0.443/litre; Aug up 1.77% to $0.439/litre and Sept up 1.74% to $0.433/litre. Oct was quoted at $0.426/litre on CBOT.

There is no major change in the freight rates. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $28.25/ MT and PNW-Japan at $15.5/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $26.25/MT and PNW-China at $14.25/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $29-17.25/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

USGC Grain News – June 2016; Planting decisions and corn planting videos

The USGC Grain news for the month of Jun 2016 is available on the web. The news contains links to the two videos that show how US farmers tae planting decisions and the planting of 2016 US corn crop.

Use link below to read the grain news and find the link to the videos

USGC Grain News – June 2016

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

US corn prices up; Brazil corn losses high; India maize price up on higher domestic demand & stocking for lean period

CBOT Corn, July contract - Jun 03, 2016The maize planting in the US is almost done and more than 72% of the corn has emerged. The weather looks good and with no threats at present, looks like US corn crop is having  a good start. It was a short week for trade in US, but that did not mean there was less trade. Tuesday was the last day of the trade for the month of May and the July contract was down considerably, closing at $4.0475/bushel ($159.34/MT), but the prices were back with the bang the next day, the first day of the new month closing at $4.1375/bushel ($162.88/MT). By end of the week, the prices were up at $164.64/MT, closing 1.36% higher than last weeks close, after the dip in the middle of the week. Sept contract was also up by 1.30% to $165.19/MT, Dec up 1.50% to $165.19/MT. The exports sales have been very good from US and with Brazil prices high due to losses there, it is keeping the US prices high. FOB prices for US corn at US Gulf were indicated at $183-186/MT for Jun-Aug period and high at $193/Mt for Sep. FOB prices at PNW were indicated at $194-196/Mt for the period July-Sep.

The plant protein prices also continued to increase, following rains in Argentina, which could lead to damage and slow down the harvest of Soybeans. As the demand plant protein was strong, there was no change in the FOB prices at (US Gulf) prices were at $214 and PNW at $232. Aug FOB (US Gulf) was down to $204/MT and PNW at $226/MT. Delivered price to Vietnam and China were up for immediate delivery and were indicated at $270/Mt and $250/Mt respectively. For Aug 2016 delivery the prices were indicated lower at $253/MT and $245/Mt respectively.

India maize price on spot basis continue to move up, breaching the Rs.17000/Mt mark in Sangli and closing on Friday at Rs.17300/MT, up 2.98% against last week; Prices in Bihar at Gulabbagh were also up 1.03%to Rs.13250/MT. Nizamabad up 1.37% to Rs.15605/MT; Davangere up 2.82%to Rs.16400/MT and Karim Nagar up 1.66%to Rs.16037/MT. This week also saw GOI announcing the new MSP for various Khariff crops. While Pulses got the maximum increase ranging from 7.73%to 9.18%, maize got an increase of 3.01% to Rs.13650/MT. With the coarse cereals even Sorghum MSP has been increased by 3.5%to Rs.16250/MT; Pearl Millet 4.31% to Rs.13300/Mt and Ragi 4.54% to Rs.17250/MT (these are the coarse cereals are better suited for dry conditions and do not require much water).  The new prices will be valid from Oct 1, 2016 and only time will tell about the shift to other crops. Some reports do point towards a shift to pulses against Soybeans in Madhya Pradesh; Oilseeds and Pulses in place of cotton in Punjab,. but it is little early to predict and only  time will tell what the farmers decide to plant in major corn belts of India, including Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. With monsoon predicted at 106% of LPA, it seems to be a good start for now.

Future prices were mixed and June contract on NCDEX down 0.36% t o Rs.13800/MT; July down 0.42%to Rs.14180/MT; Aug slightly up at Rs.14560/MT; Sept 0.54% to Rs.14940/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

USGC Grain News – May 2016 – US Farmers Insight

USGC Grain News –  May 2016, a US farmers special issue is on the web. Read details on farmers insight on the sowing conditions for Barely, Corn and Sorghum. Technology used, why they decide to plant a particular crop.

Use link below to read more

USGC Grain News – May 2016

Any questions, please feel free to connect

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

High plant protein prices and corn prices in the world; DDGS price too moves up, but still is a good buy; Maize prices continue to climb up in India

CBOR Corn - July 2016 (As on Friday, May 26, 2016)The US corn market moved up substantially last week, following a good export sales and issues with South American harvest issues. On the CBOT, Jul contract was up 4.61% to close at $162.43/MT; Spet up 4.44%to $163.06/Mt and Dec up 4.24%to $162.75/MT. Almost 86% of the corn crop is planted and over 60% emerged, which is good sign. If prices remain robust, would the farmers plant more in the US is question that needs to be answered. But if there is some more more rains in US, where the plating has been delayed, farmers would tend to shift to Soybeans, as protein prices are too moving up. Higher corn prices on CBOT were reflected in the FOB prices (US Gulf) as well, which also moved up indicated at $180-184/Mt for Jun-Aug period and $190/MT for Sept. FOB prices (US PNW) were indicated at $187-189/Mt for Jun-Sep. Against US corn prices, Argentine corn prices were indicated at $186/MT and Brazilian at $190/MT. Black sea corn prices were indicated at $191/MT (All on FOB basis at respective ports).

There are two reasons for DDGS prices to move up, one corn prices moving up and the second Soybean prices moving up. Until lost week 48% protein SBM from US was priced at $455/Mt (FOB US Gulf) and this week, the prices were up by $20/Mt to $475/MT. 46.5% protein US SBM until last week was indicated to be delivered to Asia at $484/M<T and this week, the prices increased to $506/MT. This certainly has put pressure on DDGS prices as well, which have moved up. Until last week, the DDGS was was prices at $202/MT (FOB US Gulf) and this week, prices at $215/MT and delivered to Asia at $245 -250/MT. The price of other protein sources too continue to increase and CGM is now prices at $640/Mt (FOB US Gulf).

The other corn co-product which is getting essential is ethanol. Prices have moved up, following increase in corn prices. Jun $0.438/lit; Jul $0.434/Lit; Aug $0.431/Lit and Sept 0.426/lit.

There have been rains in India, across all belts which has given the necessary respite from heat. These showers should not be considered as monsoon, but pre-monsoon, and have given much needed moisture to the soil where needed. Despite this the Spot prices of maize across all centres continued to move up, especially Bihar which is the only place where maize is available. Prices were up by 2.36% to Rs.13115/MT at Gulabbagh. On April 25, 2016 price of maize, loaded on to the rake was Rs.11500/Mt and on May 26, 2016 was Rs.13500/MT, an increase of 17.39%, which is an indication on the demand and that the pipeline is empty. Delivered price of maize too Gujarat is now at Rs.15500/Mt or more. There is a crop expected in Uttar Pradesh soon and that could reduce the pressure on Bihar for some time, but not for long. With rains that have affected the grain quality in Bihar to some extent and limited the loading, with rains expected in the next 48 hrs, movement could still be an issue.

While 106% is good monsoon  as predicted by IMD, there is now more concern about the distribution of the monsoon. About 123% is expected in Sept, which would coincide with the harvest and could affect the corn quality, delay the harvest and cause damage to the standing crop.

The freight rates continue to move up slowly. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $27.25/ MT and PNW-Japan at $16.5/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $25.25/MT and PNW-China at $15/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $28.75-17.5/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Rains will be delayed in India; Maize and plant protein prices continue to move up in India; US corn is the cheapest; DDGS could be a saviour for Indian feed sector

For the last one month – since April 22, 2016, Indian Maize prices have been moving up sharply week on week. Be it futures or the spot prices. For the month in calculation, April 22 – May 21, 2016, prices in Nizamabad were up by 4.32% to Rs.15100/MT; Davangere at Rs.15350, up 2.5%; Karimnagar uRs.15162, up 1.93%; Sangli at Rs.16250/MT, up 6.21% and Gulabbagh, where the pressure has been the most the prices this week were up at Rs.12812/MT, up 10.974% in one month. In the last one week only the prices moved up by 3.7%.

The rains due to the Cyclonic Strom in Bay of Bengal and given some respite to the land in Coastal Andhra, Telangana, Parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, where there was parched land. But at the same time rains in Bihar due to the storm had affected the flow of material and some damage has been reported, which is leading to high prices. The delivered price of maize to South India from Bihar is now at Rs.15600-15800/MT.

The monsoon is expected to be delayed by a week or more due to the cyclonic storm in Bay of Bengal. This is possibly causing some anxiety and leading to increase in prices in the futures market as well. May contract closed at Rs.13320/MT, up 4.47% in last one week. Jun Rs.13970/MT, up 9.65% in last one month and up 5.67% in last one week; Jul Rs.14270/MT, up 9.26% in last once month and up 5.08% in last one week; Aug Rs.14750/MT, up 10.24% in last one month, up 5.73% in last one week; Sept Rs.14800/MT, up 3.35% in last one week.

CBOT Corn - July 2016 - May 20, 2016International markets have also been very volatile as rains affected South America, corn prices tended to move up for the week ending April 29, 2016 (May $153.61/MT; Jul $154.16/MT; Sep $154.16/MT), finally moving lower the next week. But the prices have been moving up slowing and gradually as there are indications of farmers could be shifting to soy at the last moving as there are some areas in US, where there have been rains, planting soy would be a good bet then. CBOT closed this week higher. Jul $155.27/MT, up 0.97%; Sep $156.13/MT, up 0.86% and Dec $156.13/MT, down 0.40%. About 75% of the corn crops has been planted, against 82% last year and 70% five year average. US corn price son FOB basis were indicated at $175/MT (US Gulf) and $180/MT (PNW). While Argentine corn prices were indicated at $165/MT, Brazilian at $182/MT, and Black Sea corn at $185/MT. US#2 is the cheapest corn as on date and could reach SEA region at $210-212/MT, but Indian end users may not be able to take advantage on this, as US corn is Genetically Modified and GOI does not allow import of GM corn, unless approved by Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee. India’s last imports from Ukraine in early 2016 were from Ukraine and a effective price of $194/MT (CNF) and with corn prices moving up in Black sea, the lower prices may not be available.

Due to the rains in South America and SBM prices moving up, DDGS prices too have tended to move up. In the last one month the FOB prices of DGGS (US Gulf) have moved up by $30/MT to $202/MT this week. Delivered price of DDGS to Vietnam were indicated at $248/MT and to China at $235/MT. But still a feasible buy against any other plant protein, which are higher in India. Ground Nut Extraction 40% protein Rs.28000/MT; GNE 45% protein Rs.31000/MT; SBM 44% Protein 35800/MT; Local DDGS (mixed) with 35% Protein 26000/MT. If GOI would allow plant proteins from the world market, US DDGS with 28% protein and 6% fat could reach Indian shores at Rs.16750/MT and US SBM (46.5% protein) at Rs.33000/MT. This would certainly give an edge to the feed manufacturers in the short term, until the corn and Soy crops are harvested in India in Oct/Nov 2016.

Other corn co-product Corn Gluten Meal (CGM) with 60% protein is indicated at a price $592/MT and could be delivered to India at $640/MT Rs.43,000/MT, against local CGM at Rs.54000/MT (The above indicated prices at port delivered in East/South India) and Indian prices are Ex-factory in India.

Ethanol, a corn co-product is an important product in the US and is used extensively in fuel blending. The price has been moving steadily as the corn prices were moving up. Current price on CBOT Jun $0.425/L; Jul $0.424/L; Aug 0.422/L and Sept $0.418.

The freight rates have been moving up steadily and no surprises there. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $26/ MT and PNW-Japan at $16/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $24.25/MT and PNW-China at $14.50/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $28.25-17/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Maize harvest brings down prices in India; Corn prices move up in US; Protein meals priced high in India, world has cheap protein; Ethanol could be good buy for India for blending

As the arrivals of maize pick up from Bihar and other production centres including Maharashtra, the prices are stable and availability remains good. It is the start of the new season nd as there was no rain the quality of maize being delivered is expected to be good. Price of Maize in Bihar at the market yard is about Rs.11750/MT and loaded to the train would be Rs.12500/MT, delivered to Gujarat the prices are Rs.14300/MT. Maharashtra maize too is priced at about the same price locally and as the poultry industry moved to hatch holiday again in Maharashtra, Karnataka at least by some of the hatcheries, the demand pick up is likely to be little slow over a period of time. The prices have been down in the spot markets. Nizamabad down 0.55% to Rs.14340/MT; Davangere down 0.34%to Rs.14700/MT; Karimnagar stable at Rs.14600/MT; Gulabbagh down 13.19% to Rs.12077/MT (At the NCDEX ware house).

CBOT Corn - May 2016 on April 08, 2016In the US though, after the drop in corn prices on CBOT as the planting intentions report was out, the market seems to understand that it just may not be possible to plant so much corn. There could be swings due to weather  and also in areas where the crop season is relatively short. This realisation made sure that the market moved up, stabilised. may contract was up 2.32% to $142.59/MT; Jul up 2.07% to $143.69/MT and Sep up 1.77% to $144.87/MT. The upward move in price of corn on CBOT did lead to some increase in FOB prices as well and were indicated at $164/MT (Apr) and down to $161/MT (Jun). CNF price to Asia region was indicated in the range of $195-200/MT for US corn. FOB prices at PNW were indicated at $165/MT. Argentine  and Brazilian corn prices remained the same at $161 and $158/Mt respectively. Black seas corn was also stable at $163/MT (All prices on FOB basis, at respective ports).

Following the drop in corn prices a week earlier, DDGS price followed suit this week and were down by about $9/MT on FOB basis, indicated $162/MT (Apr) and $159/Mt (Jun) – US Gulf and PNW price indication was $180/MT (Apr) and $177/MT (Jun). Delivered price of DDGS to Vietnam was indicated at $206/MT (Apr) down $200/Mt (Jun) and to China the delivered ripe was indicated at $200 of the three months (Apr-Jun). The protein co-product, Corn Gluten meal was priced at $534/Mt (FOB US Gulf).

Protein meal prices in India continue to increase and delivered price of SBM to feed millers in Gujarat and Coimbatore from the central locations (Indore) is about Rs.41,000 – 43,000/MT ($612-641/MT). Against this US SBM is priced at $322 (FOB) and is being delivered to Asia @ $360/MT (in bulk). US Soybean priced much lower at $357/Mt and could be delivered to Asian region at $400/MT.

Barley harvest in India is underway and prices have come down. At Jaipur the prices are $13500/Mt (At NCDEX warehouse) and at the market yard Rs.13000/MT. US barley (feed) is indicated at $130/MT and Malting barley in Great falls is quoted at $200/MT.

Ethanol exports to Brazil continue and US ethanol is being used for blending in Brazilian Gasoline. US ethanol much cheaper than Brazilian ethanol and Brazilian mills continue to make sugar rather than convert cane juice to ethanol. Even though the prices of ethanol did move up in US, it is still the cheapest ethanol available in the world. may contract up 2.725 to $0.399/liter; Jun up 2.25% to $0.396/liter; Jul up 2.19% to $0.394/Liter and Aug at $0.39/liter.

The freight rates moved up slightly. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $24/ MT and PNW-Japan at $14.50/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $23.25/MT and PNW-China at $13.50/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $27-15.75/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

US farmers intent to plant more corn, prices move down; maize arrivals start in India, prices are down; protein prices move up significantly

Two events this week led to some heavy price movement in the corn market. One was that China would be moving away from the market support for Corn and over the next few months the corn prices in China will be based on market demand and supply. China is likely to offload 40 – 50 MMT of corn stocks. If the government does not purchase corn, farmers may move away from the corn production. which would eventually lead to China importing some of the corn atlas from the world market. We willed to wait and watch the developments in China very closely.

May contract - CBOT - April 01, 2016The second event was the USDA planting intention report. Farmers are expected to plant corn in 93.6 million hac in 2016, up 6 percent  against last year. This is much higher than the trade estimates of 89.99 mill hac.  U.S. corn stocks on March 1 are estimated at 198.3 MMT  1% above the last year and the  usage of corn for the period December 2015 through February 2016 is pegged at 87.122 MMT down 1% from the same period a year ago. With prices of corn being low, the high corn planting was a surprise and from now on it will be more of a weather market and a lot will deepen on how much corn actually gets planted and if there will be any shift Soybeans.

On the CBOT, corn prices were down by over 4% as the US planting report was out. May down 4.32%t o $139.36/MT; Jul down 4.49% to $140.78/MT and Sept down 4.64% too $142.35/MT. The lower prices on CBOT were also reflected in the FOB prices were were indicated at $159/MT (US Gulf) and $162/Mt (PNW). As the prices of corn were down the the DDGS prices for next few months were also quoted lower at $169/MT (US Gulf) and $189/Mt (PNW). Delivered prices of DDGS to Vietnam for April indicated at $2o7/MT and for May/Jun indicated at $201/MT. Delivered price of DDGS to China for Apr-Jun indicated at $200/MT.  It is possibly the cheapest protein and oil source available at this point and can be used to feed poultry, dairy, sheep/goat and Auqa in varied percentages, depending on the species. Enough work has been down around the world that has made DDGS as a feed ingredient of choice in many countries. Other co-product of Corn, Corn Gluten Meal is priced at $540/MT (FOB).

Prices pop corn from other origins was not affected much by the reports and Argentine corn was indicated at $165/Mt and Brazilian at $158/MT. Black Sea corn was indicated $163/MT. All prices of FOB basis at respective ports.

Even though corn prices were down, but much change in ethanol prices and in fact the prices were up slightly. All prices change was in DDGS only. April $0.382/Liter, up 1.40%; May $0.388/Litre, up 1.24%; Jun up 0.48% to $0.387/litre and July up 0.14% to $0.386/liter. 

In India maize arrivals have started in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka, Andhra and Telanagna and the average prices range between Rs.13300-15500/MT. While in Karnataka the arrivals are good in some markets, in other locations and arrivals are just starting. Spot prices in key markets have come down, Nizamabad down 0.45% to Rs.14420/Mt; Davangere down 0.84%to Rs.14750/MT; Karimnagar down 0.34%top Rs.14900/MT and Gulabbagh down 12.17% to Rs.13912/Mt. Sangli prices were up by 0.13%to Rs.14900/MT.

The freight rates more or less remained stable. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $23.50/ MT and PNW-Japan at $14/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $21.75/MT and PNW-China at $13/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $26.25-15/MT

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Responses
  • Subscribe to the Blog

  • Follow us on Twitter

    You can also follow us on Twitter @TechproIndia !!
  • Post Archives

  • Tags