Good weather conditions in the US, corn prices tumble; Indian maize prices remain stable

In was an interesting week. Corn prices in the US went below $200 per MT for Sept – dec contracts and if one analyses corn on exchange for one year atleast (Dec 2013 – Dec 2014) is being offered at less than $200 per MT. The weather has been very good and is supporting corn, which is good news for the end users across the world. While Sept contract closed at $193.68 per MT , sown 9.65% against last week’s close, Dec corn was down 4.91% to $187.39 per MT and Mar down 4.67% to $192.35 per MT. Analysts point out, it a weather market at present and corn status on the field is 63% good to excellent – 25% fair and only 11% very poor and poor. Based on the current prices corn is offered on FOB basis at $257 (Aug) down to $221 (Nov) US Gulf and $305 per MT (Aug) down to $239 per MT (Nov) PNW.

Indian maize prices at the market yard have more or less remained stable (Slightly up) at Rs.13375 per MT. higher than last year by 8.4%.  At most of the markets yards, prices did move up except in Tamil nadu, where they were down by 1.5% at Rs.14978 and also in Uttar Pradesh, where prices were stable at Rs.13420 per MT. Andhra Pradesh  up  0.31% to Rs.13139 per MT; Gujarat up 1.55%to Rs.14888 per MT; Karnataka up 3.29% to Rs.13615 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up by 2.07% to Rs.13083 per MT; Maharashtra and Rajasthan up by 0.78% to Rs.14036 per MT.

Better rains, higher area under coarse cereals in India at 12.664 Mill hac until July 19, 2013 up from last year’s 9.5 Mill hac have made sure prices on exchange are down. Aug down 6.6% 13120 per MT; Sept down 3.9% to Rs.13140 per MT; Oct down 3.41% to Rs.12220 per MT and Nov down 12170 per MT. This in anticipation of a bumper crop of maize in India. Spot prices were down in most of the markets except Karimnagar, where prices moved up by 0.2%to Rs.14880 per MT. Nizamabad down 0.75% to Rs.14933 per MT; Davangere down 0.67% to Rs.14816 per MT; Sangli down 0.28% to Rs.16000 per MT and Gulabbagh down 1.37% to Rs.13685 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices were up by 3% this week to Rs.14180 per MT, higher than last year by 18.8% and also higher than maize by 5.7%.

Sorghum prices were down by 1.8% to Rs. 15729 per MT, up 1% against last year and higher than maize by 15% In the US Sorghum is quoted at $246 per Mt (Sept) down to $243 (Oct delivery)

Barley prices in India were stable at Rs. 11942 per MT, higher than last year by 3%. On the exchange the prices moved down. Aug down 5.17% to Rs.12185 per MT; Sept down 5.05% to Rs.12400 per MT; Oct down 5.91% to Rs.12700 per MT; Nov down 5.25% to Rs.13080 per MT and Spot prices at jaipur down 2.33% to Rs.13000 per MT. In the US feed barley was quoted at $275 per MT (FOB) and 2R and 6R barley was quoted at $260 per MT at Idaho and $286 in Minneapolis.

DDGS prices were also under pressure as corn prices are down. DDGS is being offered at $285 per MT (Aug) down to $252 per MT (Oct) – FOB Gulf and is being rail delivered to PNW at $299 per Mt for Aug, down to $251 per Mt (oct). CNF prices to Vietnam were reported at $370 (Aug) – $340 (Oct) and to China $355 per MY (Aug) – $328 per Mt (Nov). CGM is being offered at $685 per MT (FOB).

Freight markets moved down slightly  and the benchmark US Gulf – Japan $46 per MT; PNW – Japan $24 per MT; US Gulf – China $43 per MT; PNW – China $22.50; Argentina/Brazil-China $35 – 41 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Maize prices stable in India; Prices of corn take a plunge in US for Dec, weather conditions remain good

Maize prices remained more of less stable in India, moving up just 0.9% to Rs.13296 per MT on pan India average. Prices were higher than last year by 10.4%.  While prices in several of the markets yards did move up, there was a mixed reaction in the spot markets on the exchange,  possibly due to demand. However, the future prices (on the exchange) were down taking a cue from the international markets.

Prices in Andhra Pradesh up 1.38% to Rs.13180 per MT; Prices on spot markets in Nizamabad were stable at Rs.14821 per Mt and in down in Karimnagar by 0.66% to Rs.14850 per MT. Prices in Karnataka were up by 2.31% to Rs.14078 per MT and in Davangere spot market, the prices on the exchange were up by 12.71% to Rs.14971 per MT. Prices were also up in Gujarat by 7.31% to Rs.15123 per MT; Madhya Pradesh by 0.32% to Rs.13359 per MT and Rajasthan by 0.70% to Rs.14147 per MT. Prices were also up in Gulabbagh (Bihar0 by 0.94% to Rs.14006 on the Spot market. Prices were reported down in some markets including Maharatshra 0.61% to Rs.14146 per MT; On Spot market at Sangli, priecs wered own by 1.26% to Rs.16045 per MT. Prices were down in Uttar Pradesh by 0.17% to Rs.13431 per MT.

In the US,  it is a weather centric market. Good weather and crop conditions led to prices moving lower for Sept and well as Dec contracts. Sept closed at $214.39 per MT down 0.14%. De was down 1.69% to $197.07 per MT. On FOB US Gulf, corn prices were indicated at $295 per MT (Aug) and down to $228 per MT (Nov) . FOB PNW, prices were indicated at $326 per MT (Aug) and $318 per MT (Nov).

DDGS prices are likely to be down in Oct/Nov delivery (FOB), on lower corn prices at that point. Current FOB prices (US Gulf) are indicated at $298 (AUg), down to $272 (Oct) and at PNW indicated at $315 (Aug), down to $264 (Oct). CNF prices to Vietnam and China are in the range of $372-352 per MT (Aug), down to $350-335 per MT (Oct). CGM prices moved up to $705 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 3.6% to Rs.13772 per MT, higher than last year by 19.5%. Prices were higher than maize by 3.5%.

Sorghum prices in India were more or less stable at Rs.16015 per MT, lower than last year by 0.4% and higher than maize by 17%. In the US sorghum is prices at $256 per Mt (Sept), down to $252 per mT (Oct).

Barley prices moved up by 1.5% to Rs.11945 per MT on pan India average. On the exchange as well as the spot markets prices moved up. Jul up 2.6% to Rs.12815 per MT; Aug up 0.35% to Rs.12850 per MT; Sept up 0.5% to Rs.13060 per MT; Oct up 1.24% to Rs.13445 per MT; Nov up 2.86% to Rs.13805 per MT. Spot prices at Jaipur were up 0.71% to Rs.13311 per MT.

Freight markets moved up for a small measure. Benchmark US Gulf – Japan $46.50 per MT; PNW – Japan $24.75 per MT; US Gulf – China $43.40 per MT; PNW – China $23.50; Argentina/Brazil-China $35.50 – 41 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Maize prices stable in India; volatile in the US for July, effect seen in Dec as well

Maize prices in India were lower on Pan India basis this week by 0.8% to Rs.13171 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 13%. The overall sowing of coarse cereals is much higher at 9.65 Mill hac against 3.98 million hac in 2012/13. The overall rainfall is higher than the average by 20% and this has made sure farmers plant more this year and that too early. The overall good sowing has effected the prices in the markets across the country, which have been reported lower.

Andhra Pradesh down 2.28% to Rs.13000 per MT; Gujarat down 2.59% to Rs.14093 per MT; Madhya Pradesh down by 0.16% to Rs.13316 per MT; Maharashtra down by 2.37% to Rs.14233 per MT; Rajasthan down by 1% to Rs.14048 per MT; Tamil nadu down by 15137 per MT and Uttar Pradesh down by 2.51% to Rs.13454 per MT. Prices inKarnataka were up by 1.71% to Rs.13760 per MT.

The prices were also down in all key delivery centers of NCDEX. Nizamabad down 0.98% to Rs.14813 per MT; Davangere down 15.98% to Rs.13233 per MT; Karimnagar down 1.54% to Rs.14950 per MT; Sangli down 2.14% to Rs.16250 per MT and Gulabbagh was up by 3.83%to Rs.13875 on increased demand by domestic players. Future prices however defied logic and continued an upward trend. With exports slow for the movement prices should fall as availability is there. Jul up 0.87% to Rs.13860 per MT; Aug up 0.71% to Rs.14170 per MT; Sept up 0.41% to Rs.14360 per MT. Only October was down 5.71% to Rs.13200 per MT as new crop arrives in Oct. Nov contract was indicated Rs.12700 per MT. As the swing started early and all goes well and weather gods keep smiling, maize should be delivered in the markets earlier than expected.

In the US, the prices were volatile due to the current weather conditions, which led the price rally and the July corn was high at $282.10 per MT on Thursday and Dec at $207.46 per MT. The prices subsided on Friday as the market could not sustain the high and were down to $276.12 per MT for July contract, up only 2.45% against last week and Dec closed at $200.46 per MT, up 3.66% against last week’s close. Sept was up 3.76% to $214.71 per MT. Crops conditions remain good and almost 68% of the crops is in fair (51%) and excellent (17%) conditions. 25% of the crop is the fair condition. USDA released is report of July 12 and there were no major changes that could effect the market sentiment. From now on the market will be more focused on weather and crop conditions. FOB prices were indicated at $296 per MT for Aug down to $228 per Mt for Nov (US Gulf) and at PNW $313 per MT (Aug), down to $252 per MT (Nov). Brazilian corn was indicated at $203 (July) down to $195 (Sept) and Argentinian corn at $203 per MT (July), down to $200 (Aug) on respective FOB basis.

Pearl Millet prices in India were down by 6.8% to Rs.13293 per MT, higher than last year by 20.9% and higher than maize by 0.9%. In North India though prices price are lower and the grain is being used in layer rations in Rajasthan, Haryana and parts of Punjab. 

Sorghum prices were p by a mere 0.3% to Rs.16052 per MT, down 3.6% against last year and higher than maize by 17.9%. In the US sorghum was prices at $247 per MT (Sept), down to $244 per MT (Oct).

Barley prices in India were more or less stable at Rs.11773 per MT, down by 1% against last year. On the exchange the prices were down for all contracts and also spot. Jul down 4.94% to Rs.12490 per MT; Aug down 4.54% to Rs.12805 per MT; Sept down 5.29%to Rs.12995 per MT; Oct down 5.14% to Rs.13280 per MT and Nov at Rs.13420 per MT. Spot price at Jaipur down 2.21% to Rs.13237 per MT. Feed barley in the US was indicated at $276 per MT. Malting barley (2R-6R) in Idaho and Minneapolis was indicated at $ 260 and $285 per MT respectively.

DDGS prices were up on higher corn prices and limited supplies for July/Aug deliveries. Prices now would move lower only on lower corn prices in Sept/Oct. Current prices were indicated as $300 (July), up to $302 (Sept) – FOB US Gulf) and at PNW $309 for July up to $311 per MT. Delivered to SEA region prices were at $363 per MT (Vietnam), and $355 per MT (China).

Freight markets remained stable which no changes. Benchmark US Gulf – Japan $45.50 per MT; PNW – Japan $24 per MT; US Gulf – China $42.40 per MT; PNW – China $22.50; Argentina/Brazil-China $34.50 – 40 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com    

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Maize prices move up in India; Good report for corn in US, makes its cheaper for a long buy

Maize prices in India moved up very sightly on pan India basis 0.1% to Rs.13277 per MT, higher than last year by 15.5%. There is demand from poultry and starch the the buyers move to Bihar. Quality may not be as good, but workable. Some local corn also available in Punjab, though wet and hence cannot be stored. Must be dried to 12% to store. In other major productions states, prices have moved up, Andhra Pradesh up 4.62% to Rs.13304 per MT; Gujarat up 0.71% to Rs.14468 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up 0.38% to Rs.13338 per MT; Maharashtra up 5.64% to Rs.14579 per MT; Rajasthan up 2.05% to Rs.14190 per MT; Tamil nadu up 4.77% to Rs.15265 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up 2.22% to Rs.13800 per MT. Prices were reported to be lower only in Karnataka by 2.82% to Rs.13529 per MT.

On the exchange, though the futures show a declining trend,  the spot prices are moving up as  the markets move up. at the NCDEX delivery centres, prices were up at all the centres.

Jul down 0.86% to Rs.13740 per MT; Aug down 1.47% to Rs.14070 per MT; Sept down 1.44% to Rs.14300 per MT and Oct up 0.79% to Rs.14000 per MT. Spot prices at Nizamabad up 0.49% to Rs.14960 per MT; Davangere up 5.88% to Rs.15750 per MT; Sangli up 1.73% to Rs.16606 per MT and Gulabbagh up 1.78% to Rs.13362 per MT. Karim nagar was down 1.04% to Rs.15140 per MT. Following good rains, the sowing has been progressing very well and it seems India will harvest a bumper crop. 

In the US, the reports are very encouraging and 67% of the crop is reported good to excellent and 25% as fair. This has put the pressure on the prices for Sept and Dec. Weather continues to be favourable for the crop. There is less corn available at present and hence the Jul prices continue to move up and on CBOT prices were up 0.79% to $269.51 per MT. Sept down 3.95% to $206.91 per MT and Dec down 3.87% to $193.37 per MT. The lower prices in Sept have been reflected in the FOB values for Oct/Nov at both the locations Gulf as well and PNW and prices were indicated at $220 and 244 per Mt respectively. For near delivery to the two locations,  the prices were $302 and 331 respectively. Argentinian corn is being quoted at $204-208 per MT FOB while Brazilian corn at $202-206 per MT (FOB).

Pearl Millet prices in India were up by 6.5% to Rs.14259 per MT, up 27.2% against last year and also higher than maize by 6.9%. Large quantum of pearl millet (green) is being harvested in Punjab and Haryana to be fed to animals and there are locations where it is being converted to silage as well.

Sorghum prices were down this week by 4.2% to Rs.16606 per MT, lower than last year by 11.2% and higher than maize by 17%. Sorghum in US was priced at $232 per MT, for Sept/Oct delivery to port

Barley prices were more or less stable at Rs.11765 per MT, higher than last year by 2.3%. On the exchange, while the future prices were down for all the contracts, spot prices were up. Jul down 2.41% to Rs.13140 per MT; Aug down 2.50% to Rs.13415 per mT; Sept down 2.56% to Rs.13680 per MT and Oct down 2.43% to Rs.14000 per MT. Spot price at Jaipur was Rs.13400 per MT, up 0.58%. Barley prices in the US were reported at $270 per MT (FOB).

With the cheap corn to be available in Sept, buyers are awaiting for cheap DDGS. Current prices are unchanged as last week at $288 per MT FOB US Gulf. Delivered prices to Vietnam and China were indicated at $366 and $356 per Mt respectively. CGM was indicated at $690 per MT with 60% protein.

Freight rates continue to be be stable and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $45.50 per MT, PNW-Japan $24 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $42.50 per MT and PNW-China at $22.50 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $34.50 – 40 per MT.   

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Maize prices edge up slowly; sowing is fastpaced;USDA report bullish for old crop and bearish for new crop

India maize price moved up on pan india average basis at the market yard by a small margin of 0.3% to Rs.13261 per MT, prices are higher than last year by 14.6%. Prices did move up in some of the production/consumption centres including Gujarat up by 2.45% to Rs.14366 per MT; Karnataka up by 2.26% to Rs.13290 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up by 4.55% to Rs.13287 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up by 0.29%to Rs.13500 per MT. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 0.92% to Rs.12717 per MT; Maharashtra down by 0.14% to Rs.13801 per MT; Rajasthan down by 5.47% to Rs.13905 per MT and Tamil nadu down by 3.12% to Rs.14570 per MT. The average price of maize in June 2013 was Rs.13165 per MT, 19.51% higher than last year (Jun 2012) and 4.04% higher than last month (May 2013).

While the future price were indicated lower for all the contracts, prices in the the spot markets were up. July down 2.73% to Rs.13860 per MT; Aug down 2.52% to Rs.14280 per MT; Sept down 3.13% to 14510 per MT. Prices in spot were up, Nizamabad up 4.8% to RS.14887 per MT; Davangere up 1.88% to Rs.14875 per MT; Karimnagar up 6.39% to Rs.15300 per MT; Sangli up 3.34% to Rs.16322 per MT and Gulabbagh up 1.94% to Rs.13128 per MT.  With the weak rupee, Indian corn is again very competitively priced for exports.  

The latest USDA report on corn stocks and acreage is bullish for old crop and bearish for new crop. Corn stocks as on June 1, 2013 totalled 70.214 MMT,  down 12 percent from June 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 32 MMT   are stored on farms, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at  38.2 MMT , are down 10 percent from a year ago. The  March – May 2013 indicated disappearance is 67 MMT, compared  with 73.15 MMT during the same period last year. Lower stocks estimates led the prices to move up for JUly contract, which closed up by 2.66%to $267.38 per MT. 

Corn planted area for 2013 is estimated at 97.4 million  acres, up slightly from last year. This represents the highest planted  acreage in the United States since 1936 when an estimated 102 million acres  were planted. Growers expect to harvest 89.1 million acres for grain, up  2 percent from last year. Higher acreage pulled down the prices for sept and de, Sept down 7.56% to $215.42 per MT and Dec down 8.12% to $201.16 per MT. This is possibly the cheapest grain available at this point anywhere.

FOB prices were indicated as under

US Gulf $303 per MT july delivery – down to $229 per MT in Nov

PNW $330 per Mt for July delivery down to $250 per MT for Nov

Pearl Millet prices in India were down by 1.5% this week to Rs.13385 per MT, higher than last year by 20.7% and also higher than maize by 0.9%.  The average price of Pear Millet in June 2013 was Rs.13702 per MT, 31.96% higher than last year (Jun 2012) and 3.93% lower than last month (May 2013).

 Sorghum price was up 2.8% to Rs.16700 per MT, lower than lastyear by 6.2% and higher than maize by 20.6%. The average price of Sorghum in June 2013 was Rs.16257 per MT, 1.31% higher than last year (Jun 2012) and 4.01% higher than last month (May 2013). Sorghum is prices in the US at $240 per MT for Sept delivery, down to $238 per Mt in Oct. Prices are about 3% lower than corn dor Sept delivery and higher in Oct by 3%.

Barley price in India was down 1.2% to Rs.11753 per MT on pan India average, higher than last year by 0.5%. The average price of barley in June 2013 was Rs.11682per MT, 3.64% higher than last year (Jun 2012) and 1.66% higher than last month (May 2013). As the arrivals are good in UP/Rajasthan/Haryana, barley prices on the exchange continue to slide lower. July down 4% to Rs.13465 per MT; Aug down 3.77% to Rs.13760 per MT; Sept down 3.70% to Rs.14040 per MT and Oct down 0.10% to RS.14350 per MT. Spot price at Jaipur down 1.42% to Rs.1322 per MT. Barley price in the US was indicated at $270 per MT. Malting barley in Idaho was indicated at $258-260 for 2R/6R barley and in Minneapolis at $292 per MT.

Sowing is fast paced and farmers are planting early  this year as the good monsoon has provided enough water to the parched areas. Coarse cereals have been planted in 2.93 mill hac against last year coverage of 0.559 mill hac at the same time.  

DDGS prices are more or less stable at present and may continue to be same as demand is going to be less for the DDGS domestically. Good rains in the US will make sure there is adequate pasture available for the animals – specially ruminants, which consume more of the DDGS. As the corn prices remain higher for July due to lower stocks, DDGS prices could very well go up, but if demand is less, it will be stable. If US corn prices will be low as estimated, DDGS prices surely will be very attractive in Oct/Nov/Dec period.

Current FOB and CNF prices of DDGS are indicated as under

US Gulf $288 per MT July delivery – down to $286 per MT in Sept

Rail delivered to PNW $308 per Mt for July delivery 

CNF Vietnam $381 per MT in July, down to $369 per MT in Sept  

CNF China $361 per MT in July, down to $354 per MT in Sept

Corn Gluten Meal (CGM) with 60% protein is indicated at $700 per MT.

Freight rates remained stable this week and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $46 per MT, PNW-Japan $24 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $43 per MT and PNW-China at $22.5 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $34.50 – 41 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com 

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USGC Grain News – Jun 2013

The latest USGC GRAIN NEWS – dated Jun 19, 2013 is uploaded. Please use the link below to download the Grain News.

USGC Grains News – JUN 2013

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council,

 E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com 

 

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Maize prices continue to rise, monsoon covers India, sowing of maize picks up; Broiler prices also continue to rise on short supply; Corn prices in US rally, wait for the USDA report on Jun 28, 2013; Brazil corn priced much lower

Following a weak rupee, short covering of corn by exporters and international cues, maize prices continue  to move up on pan india basis. Prices averaged Rs.13221 per MT higher than last week by 0.5% and higher than last year by 16.6%. In all all states where corn is produced or consumed, prices moved up at the market yard (loose) , except Madhya Pradesh where prices were down by 0.32% to Rs.12709 per MT at the market yard. Andhra Pradesh up by 1.42% to Rs.12835 per MT; Gujarat up by 2.08% to Rs.14022 per MT; Karnataka up by 0.84% to Rs.13612 per MT; maharashtra up by 1.89%to Rs.13821 per MT; Rajasthan up by 9.65% to Rs.14789 per MT; Tamil nadu up by 6.11% to Rs.15039 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up by 1.18% to Rs.13461 per MT.

Future as well as spot prices on NCDEX continue their upward trend.  Jun expired up 1.3% to Rs.13220 per MT; July up 5.01%to Rs.14250 per MT; Aug up 3.24% to Rs.14650 per MT; Sept up 5.12% to Rs.14980 per MT. Spot prices at the NCDEX delivery centres were also up. These prices are for packed material, Nizmabad up 0.91% to Rs.14204 per MT; Davangere up 0.92%to Rs.14600 per MT; Karimnagar up 1.41% to Rs.14380 per MT; Sangli up 0.59% to Rs.15794 per MT and Gulabbagh up 2.73%to Rs.12878 per MT.

Monsoon has covered the country well before schedule and the based on Area weighted average the monsoon is 54 percent more than the average. 26 meteorological divisions have received excess rains. farmers have planted early and there are reports of crop shifts in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh from cotton to maize. It is still too early to say how much area shift will take place and if the rains continue the way they have is the past, without a break it could actually create a problem of more water and damage the seeds that have been put in the ground.

In the US, all the corn has been sown and now is the time to wit and see how the crop is progressing. As per the report 12% of the crop is in excellent condition and almost 80% in fair to average condition only 8% of the corn crop is in the very poor-poor zone. The trade and end users are anxiously waiting for the USDA stock report that will be out on Jun 28, 2013 and that will set the prices. Overall for the close month (july) the prices rallied by midweek as the weather was dry. Prices reached a high of $268.56 per MT and by end of the week were up just 1% against last week to close at $260.45. Sept corn up 3.56% to $233.05 per MT and DEc up 4.35% to $218.96 per MT. Mid week, Dec corn was high at $224.55 per MT, up by 7% against last week close, but finally the sentiment was weak which led to the correction. Corn prices of FOB basis (US Gulf) were indicated at $303 for July delivery and down to $247 per MT for Oct delivery. FOB PNW were indicated at $321 per MT in July, down to $274 per MT in Oct 2013.

Brazil is harvesting its second crop and prices in the country are being indicated at $190 per MT. These prices are competitive internally, but there is an additional cost to transport the commodity to port. If at the international level the prices have to be competitive, corn must be priced lower in Brazil. A report suggests that farmers is Brazil may think of reducing the corn acreage and taking a large second corn crop and may shift to other crops, possibly Soy.

While the prices of corn as well as SBM in Brazil are low, the cost of producing a chicken too is low. India too is a producer of corn and SBM, but prices are much higher. In $ terms (even if the rupee is weak), price of corn is $258 per MT and SBM is $600 and cost of production of a broiler is $1.06 per kg (Rs.64 per kg). While the farmer may be making money today, selling the chicken at $1.5 (Rs.90) per kg live, such high prices may not be sustainable. Indian poultry needs stability and needs low priced ingredients that are available in other parts of the world as well.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) price was down 1.7% to Rs.13585 per MT at the market yard this week, higher than last year by 23.1% and also higher than maize by 27% in the production centres. This could move small quantities of pearl millet to the poultry.

Sorghum prices were down 1% to Rs.16249 per MT, up 2.9% against last year and 18.6% higher than maize. US sorghum is priced at $258-256 per Mt for July/Aug delivery, higher than corn by 3.6%.

Barley prices moved up at the market yard by 2.6% to Rs.11896 per MT, higher than last year by 7.6%. SPOT prices at jaipur were up by 0.11% to Rs.13514 per MT. Future prices were down for all the contracts. Jun expired down 0.72% to Rs.13780 per MT; July down 0.10% to Rs.14040 per MT; Aug down 0.34%to Rs.14300 per MT; Sept down 0.13% to Rs.14580 per MT and Oct stable at Rs.14365 per MT. Feed Barley prices in the US (FOB) was $270 per MT. Malting barley 2R/6R was quoted at $258/260 per MT in Idaho and $292 in Minneapolis, higher than last week by $10 per MT.

DDGS buying remains slow this week and most of the end users (domestic as well as international) wait for  the USD report. Stock report will set the pricing and determine if the ethanol plants continue to grind corn or slow down the grind. While the crop conditions remain good, DDGS is being supported well by high SBM prices and slow deliveries from South America. Indian SBM prices are way high and SEA continues to source DDGS from US. DDGS FOB prices (US Gulf) were report at $293 per Mt for Jul, up to $298 per for Sept. Rail delivered DDGS to PNW was prices at $312 per MT. Delivered prices of DDGS to China was $365 per MT in July, down to $255 per MT in Sept and to Vietnam $385 per MT in July, down to $275 per MT in Sept.

Freight rates remained stable this week and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $46 per MT, PNW-Japan $24 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $43.5 per MT and PNW-China at $23 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $33.50 – 40 per MT.  

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com   

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Rains every where, sowing starts in right earnest; Maize prices continue upward spiral in the spot markets; International short term prices show a slight downward trend, new crop prices down more on good crop estimates

Monsoons have reached India and are in full swing. While farmers are happy and have started sowing the crops and approximately 7.55 million hac to land so far has been sown. It does give a sense security that with good rains, a bumper crop production will bring down food prices, particularly grains, that could bring down prices of meat milk and eggs.

With increased demand though, the prices of meat (broiler and eggs) though is very high. Broiler prices in HYD have touch a high of Rs.92-93 per kg live – ex farms and in Bangalore Rs.100 per kg. Whole sale price of egg in Delhi s close to Rs.320 per 100 while in other locations (production centres) in South India ranged between Rs.340 – 360 per 100. It must sell at Rs.5.00 each in the retail. Another reason for broiler prices moving upward is short supply due to peak summer. 

Maize price pan India basis moved up by 0.9% to Rs.13150 per MT, higher than last year by 16.3%. Prices moved up across the board in almost all production and consumptions states. With increased market prices, spot prices in respect NCDEX stations also moved up, though the future prices shown a downward trend, possibly due to increased monsoon activity. Andhra Pradesh up 0.74% Rs.12655 per MT (Nizamabad up 0.65% to Rs.14075 per MT and Karimnagar up 2.29% to Rs.14466 per MT). Karnataka up 0.73% to Rs.13499 per MT (Davangere up 0.45% to Rs.14466 per MT). There is limited quantity available at these two locations and the new crop in October could only ease the situation. Local Bihar maize is priced at Rs.12000 per MT, up 0.84% against last week (Gulabbagh is up 0.13%to Rs.12535 per MT). Maharashtra stable at Rs.13564 per MT (Sangli up 1.94% to Rs.15700 per MT). Gujarat up 0.44% to Rs.13736 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up 0.69% to Rs.12750 per MT; Rajasthan up 0.35% Rs.13415 per MT; Tamil nadu up 2.31% to Rs.14173 per MT (local delivery in TN is Rs.16200 – 16300 per MT to the end user); Uttar Pradesh up 0.41% to Rs.13304 per MT.

Future contracts for maize continue downward trend on heavy rains and that there could be a good crop  in the next season. These contracts are also for MAIZERABI only. Jun down 4.04% to Rs.13050 per MT; July down 3.89% to Rs.13570 per MT; Aug down 4.32% to Rs.13920 per MT and Sept down 3.97% to Rs.14250 per MT.

In the US the almost 95% of the crop has been planted. The weather has been drier and which led to corn prices losing steam at the start of the week, down to $255.89 per MT. Corn gained the next day but against lost as the USDA report indicated more imports and less of exports of corn from the US for the current crop. Finally corn close the week wt $257.85 per MT July contract down 1.68%. Sept corn was also down 3.35% to $225.02 per MT. Dec corn – the new crop lost almost $10 by the wend of the week and close at $209.83 per MT down 4.54% on improved production.      

Lower prices for the current crop and also the new crop were reflected well in the FOB prices,which were indicated at $297 per MT for July, down to $265 per MT in Sept and further down to $238 in Dec 2013 (US Gulf). At PNW the prices were indicated at $319 per MT for July, down to $286 in Sept and further down to $261 per MT in Dec 2013. Argentina FOB prices were indicated at $264 per MT for July, down to $257 for Sep, and Brazil FOB indicated at $233 per MT in July, down to $225 in Sept, 2013.

It seems the DDGS prices are going to remain higher though stable as the corn supplies in the US remain tight. Unless the new crop arrives, there is going to be no talk about lower DDGS prices. The domestic end users are using more DDGS and even though for those countries that do buy ingredients, DDGS remains a good buy. FOB prices US Gulf were indicated at $300 per MT and at PNW $313 per MT. Delivered prices to Vietnam were indicated at $38o per MT in July, up $388 in Sept and to China at $361 per MT in July, up to $365 per MT in Sept. Corn Gluten Meal (60%) protein is currently being quoted at $690 per MT. 

Pearl Millet prices in India moved lower at the market yard by 1.5% to Rs.13814 per MT, up 27.2% against last year and 4.8% higher than maize.      

Sorghum prices continued to move up at 4.8% this week to Rs.16416 per MT on pan India average. Thought arrivals were seen in Maharahstra, it has been very slow. Prices were higher than last year by 10.3% and higher than maize by 19.9%. Sorghum in US was indicated at $270 per MT about 90% the value of corn, making it a good feed, specially when it is tanin free.

Barley prices moved up by 1% at the market yard. to Rs.11594 per MT, higher than last year by 5.5%. In the US barley is being quoted at $270 per MT. 2R and 6R barley is being quoted in Idaho at $258-260 per MT, while in Minneapolis at $281 per MT.

In India, while spot prices at Jaipur remained stable at Rs.13498 per MT, futures prices have moved up. Jun up 1.53% to Rs.13880 per MT; July up 1.04% to Rs.14055 per MT; Aug up 1.05% Rs.14350 per MT, Sept up 1% to Rs.14600 per MT and Oct closed at Rs.14365 per MT.

Freight rates moved up this week and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $45 per MT, PNW-Japan $24 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $43.5 per MT and PNW-China at $23 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $33.50 – 40 per MT.             

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Maize prices move up, is it demand driven or more corn has been exported; US is a weather market now and prices move up as wet weather is ahead

Maize prices in India moved up this week by 2.1% to Rs.13027 per MT, higher than last year by 17.8%. At the market yard, prices are up by 4% over May first week prices. Prices were close to Rs.12500 per MT in the first week of May 2013.

While in two of the markets Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh prices mover down by 1.20% and 2.21% to Rs.13368 and Rs.13250 per MT respectively, in all other markets, prices moved upward at the market yard. Andhra Pradesh up by 3.06% to Rs.12562 per MT; Gujarat up 2.73% to Rs.13676 per MT; Karnataka up 1.70% to Rs.13401 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up 3.15% to RS.12662 per MT; Maharashtra up by 5.91% to Rs.13580 per MT and Tamil Nadu up by 0.77% to Rs.13853 per MT.

In one month period, prices in almost all the markets have increased by 3 to 4.5%. Andhra Pradesh up 4%; Gujarat up 4.6%, Karnataka up 3% and Tamil nadu up 4.5% in one month period. Madhya Pradesh is an exception and prices have moved up by over 10% in one month period, but then Madhya Pradesh is not a major producer of maize against other producing states.

Why are the prices so high, when India has produced 21.8 MMT of maize. Is it a demand pull or has India exported more maize in the first few months (8 months) of the marketing year. Demand pull does not seems to be the case as poultry has been subjected to major losses in past few months and only recently the prices of end products (broilers and eggs) have come back above cost of production. Starch is a similar story and sale prices are much lower than the cost of production. The logical equation is as domestic demand was not there and export was possible, more maize has been exported, as per numbers available, some 4.2 MMT of maize has been exported, which is which is higher than last year’s export during the same period.

On the exchange though the future prices have come down while the spot prices across the board have increases, clearly indicating a market sentiment.  Higher prices may not sustain exports. Jun down 5.09%to Rs.13600 per MT; Jul down 4.07% to Rs.14120 per MT; Aug down 3%to Rs.14550 per MT and Sept down 2.8% to Rs.14840 per MT. Spot prices continued their upward trend, Nizamabad up 3.8% to Rs.13984 per MT; Davangere up 1.4% to Rs.14400 per MT; Karimnagar up 4.5% to Rs.13682 per MT; Sangli up 3.35% to Rs.15400 per MT and Gulabbagh was the only market where prices were down by 1.75% to Rs.12518 per MT.

US markets have turned out to be weather markets at this point. There is discussion that if wet weather persists, it could lead to some corn acres being planted late and not planted at all . This could be 1-2 million acres. Also wet weather could affect the yields. There is overall domestic demand and the two factors led the july contract to close up by 0.63% to $262.26%. Sept and Dec contract closed lower as the corn is still being planted and there will be enough acres to produce a bountiful of corn in the US. As the week started Dec corn contiued its downward trend and by wednesday was down to $213.45 per MT, but continued wet weather conditions made sure that the prices were up, but remained lower than last week’s close.

Argentina is still selling corn and has sold a shipment of GM corn to China recently. Brazil will harvest a second crop in Jun/Sept period and that is another reason or US prices to remain lower for Sept and Dec contracts. Sept down 0.96% to $232.82 per MT and Dec down 1.55% to $219.82 per MT. The FOB (US Gulf) prices were more or less stable at $302 for Jun delivery down to $273 in Sept. FOB (PNW) were reported at $323 for Jun delivery down to $293 per MT in Sept 2013.   

Pearl Millet prices were up by 1.4% this week to Rs.14024 per MT, higher than last year by 25.7% and higher than maize by 7.1%.

Sorghum was down by 4.1% to Rs.15662 per MT at the market yard, lower than last year by 1.7% and higher than maize by 16.8%. Sorghum prices in the US was indicated at $271 per Mt for immediate delivery and down to $269 in Aug. Prices were 89% of corn, making it a good buy for use in livestock rations. Those country where there is a limit to corn imports and GM is an issue would be better off buying tanin free Sorghum for use in livestock rations.

Barley prices in India remained stable and were down by 0.5% to Rs.11484 per Mt at the market yard. higher than last year by 0.4%. In the US feed barley was quoted at $280 per MT, while malting barley in Idaho and Minneapolis was quoted at $258/260 per Mt and $281 respectively.

On the exchange the barley prices moved up. Jun contract up 3.48% to Rs.13670 per MT; Jul up 3.15% to Rs.13910 per MT; Aug up 3.23% to Rs.14200 per MT and Sept up 3.06% to Rs.14455 per MT, Spot price at Jaipur was up 1.77%to Rs.13485 per MT.

DDGS prices in the US remain strong with higher domestic demand and inclusion rates are expected to be up if nearby corn prices remain strong, which would mean DDGS prices could move up. FOB price of DDGS (US gulf) was reported at $300 for neat month, down to $299 in Aug and rail delivered DDGS to PNW was indicated at $309 per MT in Jun, down to $308 per MT in Aug, only because the corn prices have moved up. Higher DDGS prices could slowdown the demand, leading to lower prices over a short period of time. Delivered price of DDGS to Vietnam and China were indicated at $381/378 per MT and $362/358 per MT for the period Jun to Aug.

Freight rates have more or less remained as part of next week China has holidays and there would be no major buying.. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $44 per MT, PNW-Japan $22.50 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $41.5 per MT and PNW-China at $21.50 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $34.50 – 40.50 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

 

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Maize prices move up in tandem with international prices; Rains in Bihar hamper deliveries; Wet weather in US could take a toll on corn

Monsoon rains have touched Indian shores and now all eyes are on how the rains will progress. Severe wet weather for the past few days in eastern part of the country and possibly wet weather conditions in US led to a price spike in India as well. On a pan India average basis, maize price moved up by 0.8% to Rs.12753 per MT, higher than last year by 14%. The price rise was seen across the board in almost all states except Uttar Pradesh where prices at the market yard were reported lower by 0.63% to Rs.13550 per MT. Uttar Pradesh and tarai region produces maize crop all round the year and as some arrivals have started in the region, prices have come down. Andhra Pradesh up 1.94% to Rs.12189 per MT; Gujarat up by 5.15% to Rs.13312 per MT; Karnataka up by 2.32% to Rs.13177 per MT; Madhya Pradesh up by 2.37% to Rs.12275 per MT; Maharashtra up by 3.17%to Rs.12822 per MT; Rajasthan up by 3.38% to Rs.13531 per MT; Tamil nadu up by 3.38% to Rs.13747 per MT. Prices in Bihar move up to Rs.12300 per MT at the market yard as there has been rains in the region for last 3 days, which has resulted in reduced arrivals. Average price of maize for the month of May 2013 was Rs.12653 per MT, 15.42% higher than May 2012 and lower than April 2013 by 2.02% on the average basis.   

On the exchange, all contracts were seen upward, Jun up 11.51% to Rs.14330 per MT; Jul up 12.19% to Rs.14720 per MT; Aug up 11.02% to Rs.15000 per MT and Sept up 11.46% to Rs.15270 per MT; Spot prices in the key market were also up. Nizamabad up 6.76% to Rs.13471 per MT; Davangere up 4.41% to Rs.14200 per MT; Karimnagar up 4.7% to Rs.13266 per MT; Sangli up 4.56% to Rs.14900 per MT and Gulabbagh up 8.43% to Rs.12741 per MT.

Almost 86% of the corn sowing has been completed. Prices strengthened due to two reasons.

1. Wet conditions in the US which could delay the sowing and because of this could farmers shift to Soy and this last moment.

2. While  the prices in Brazil are low, there are concerns about exports from the country, due to infrastructure issues.

Jul contract moved up to $262.34 on the first trading day of the week (tuesday) and later settled at $260.61 per MT, higher than last week’s close by 0.73%. The major changes were seen in Sept and Dec contracts which were seen up by 5.40% and 5.74% to $235.10 per MT and $223.29 per MT respectively. Higher current prices led to small increase in FOB prices indicated for Jun delivery to $304 (US Gulf) and 321 (PNW). For Aug-Sept shipments though the prices were indicated at $274 per MT and $305 for the same locations, higher than last week. Argentine price was indicated at $266 per Mt and Brazil at $230 per MT.

Pearl Millet price in India on pan India basis was reported to be down 7.9% to Rs.13830 per MT, higher than last year by 29% and higher than Maize by 7.8%. Average price of Pearl Millet in May 2013 was Rs.14262 per MT, higher than May 2012 prices by 31.82% and also higher than April 2013 prices by 2.47%.

Sorghum prices were up by 5.4% to Rs.16351 per MT, higher than last year by 8.4% and higher than maize by 22%. Average price of Sorghum for May 2013 was Rs.15629 per MT, higher than last year (May 2012) by 6.63% and higher than last month (April 2013) by 1.89%. Sorghum was prices in the US at $262 per MT.

Barley prices were up by 1.7% to Rs.11538 per MT, lower than last year by 1%. Average price of barley in May 2013 was Rs.11492 per MT, 7.79% lower than last year (May 2012) and 0.20% lower than April 2013. On the exchange as well as the spot markets, prices did move lower. Jun down 1.82% to Rs.13210 per MT; Jul down 1.71% to Rs.13485 per MT; Aug down 1.96% to Rs.13755 per MT and Sept down 1.78% to Rs.14025 per MT. Spot price at Jaipur was more or less stable at Rs.13250 per MT. Feed Barley was priced at $280 per MT in the US and Malting barley at $258-260 in Idaho and $277 per MT in Minneapolis.

In the US as well as foreign markets, there is strong demand for DDGS, which is leading to price increase. Prices are still lower in relation to corn domestically and hence it is good buy and can be included in the rations. Even in the international markets, DDGS makes case as it provided quality protein and energy. FOB prices were indicated at $293 per MT (US Gulf) for Jun – Aug delivery. PNW FOB prices were $305 per MT for Jun – Aug delivery. In both the cases prices are 95-96% of corn at these two locations. Some  months back, DDGS was prices higher than corn. CNF prices were indicated at $367 per MT and $356 to Vietnam and China. Other protein meal in the US, corn gluten meal was prices at $620 per MT.

Freight rates moved lower. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $44 per MT, PNW-Japan $22.50 per MT. US Gulf-China indicated at $42 per MT and PNW-China at $21.50 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China is indicated at $35.50 – 40.50 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

 

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