Low corn prices in US increase domestic demand; Low DDGS prices spur international demand; India maize prices stable, but higher; Monsoon has a slow start

As per the USDA report 92% crop has been planted, against 88% done in 2014. The weather is good for the sowing and growth of the plants. It is likely to remain a weather market from now on, but if there is any other increased end use potential in the US, price may increase. Overall in the US the future prices tended to be down by 2.5% or more fort he three contacts and it was reflected in the FOB prices.

July contract closed at $138.34/MT, down 2.39% against last week close; Sept $140.62/MT, down 2.56% and Dec $144.87/MT down 2.54% against last week’s close. FOB prices of US Corn (US Gulf) were indicated at $168/MT (June) and down to $166/MT in Aug. Prices at PNW were indicated at $176/MT for the three month period. Argentine corn prices were at $169-174/MT; Brazil $167-172/MT; Black Sea at $164-171/MT; French corn indicated at $160-167/MT in the month period. Indian corn in Bihar is currently priced at Rs.11300/MT ($173/MT) and is being delivered to South India (At the end users point) at Rs.13400-13600/MT ($204-209/MT). With the delay in monsoon and it being not very intense in the first two weeks as projected by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the sowing in South India is expected to be delayed, which could potentially increase the prices. The heat wave in India persists, making 2015 summer t he most hot in 12 years as per the IMD report.

The gasoline (petrol in the US) prices are expected to be lower, which could stimulate increased consumption and hence, more use of ethanol in the US. The Environment Protection Agency (EPA) has projected ethanol use at 13.4 billion gallons (50.652 billion litres) in 2015 and 14 billion gallons (52.92 billion litres) in 2016, up from 13.25 billion gallons (50.085 billion litres) in 2014. Also this is reflective of the fact that the corn prices are lower. The ethanol futures price for July 2015 (as on May 29, 2015) was $1.522 per gallon ($0.40/litre), equivalent to Rs.26.17/litre in India. Aug contract closed at $1.50/gallon ($0.39/litre = Rs.25.79/litre).

Higher use of ethanol and its production would also mean more DDGS production and hence lower prices. Current FOB prices of DDGS are much lower and quoted at $239/MT June and down to $229/MT in Aug (US Gulf). FOB PNW indicated at $236-229/MT for the same period. US Corn DDGS contains 28% protein and 5-6% oil and is good source of both protein and energy and in addition high amount of xanthophyll, which is especially helpful in giving that yellow colour to the egg yolk. DDGS prices to Vietnam and China were indicated at $300-291/Mt and $284-273/MT for the three month period respectively, making it a desirable product for use in poultry, dairy, fish and swine feeds.

Ocean freight costs remain stables and the benchmark freight US Gulf-Japan was indicated at $30/MT; PNW-Japan $16.50; US Gulf-China at $28.75/MT and PNW-China at $15.50/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China freight rates ranged between a high of $31/Mt to a low of $22/MT depending on the tonnage and the discharge.

Indian maize futures on NCDEX for this week were down for the 3 contracts while the spot prices in all markets moved up except Gulabbagh, as that is the only location were maize arrivals are strong. Jun contract down 1.20% to Rs.11560/MT; Jul down 1.41% to Rs.11890/MT; Aug down 0.81% to Rs.12230/MT and Sept up 1.78% to Rs.12570/MT. Spot prices iat NCDEX delivery markets in Nizamabad up 0.67% to Rs.12991/MT; Davangere up 0.19% to Rs.13475/MT; Karimnagar up 1.32% to Rs.12833/MT; Sangli up 0.36% to Rs.14100/MT ad Gulabbagh down 0.77%to Rs.11156/MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

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Corn sowing going strong in US, good yields expected; India maize prices up slightly; DDGS remains a competitive buy

2015 corn crop plating in USAs on May 10, 2015 about 75 percent of the expected corn acreage was planted. USDA comes up with a report every Monday and new report is expected today. You can also view the corn crop planting progress on the Agweb.com website and as on May 16, 2015 expectations are that 80 percent of the areas would be planted

USDA also came out with the first WASDE report for the season for the 2015/16 crop and it is too early to predict, but as per USDA the yield is expected to be 4.236 MT/Acre, but these could change as the planting progresses and all depends on the weather conditions over the next four months, but more specifically rains and temperatures in July will determine the yield. From the crop in store (2014/15), the ending stocks are expected at 47 MMT. Due to the reduction reported in ending stocks the corn prices on CBOT moved up slightly. may contract expired on May 14, 2015 and closed 0.73% higher at 142.12/MT; July up 0.66% to $143.85/MT; Sept up 1.09% to $146.61/MT and Dec up 1.16% to $150.62/MT. The increase in future prices was also reflected in the FOB prices though very small and US corn (FOB- US Gulf) was indicated at $173/MT; at PNW $182/MT in May and down top $178/MT in July. Argentine corn was indicated at $173-176/MT; Brazilian at $170-174/MT, Black sea and French corn indicated at $167-173/Mt for the three month period.

Average corn prices in India at the market yard moved up slightly specially in Andhra Pradesh up 2% to Rs.13163/MT; Karnataka up by 1.79% to Rs.12744/MT and Telangana up by 0.65% to Rs.12435/MT. Spot prices in Gulabbagh tended to move up by 0.32% to Rs.11296/MT. The trade in Bihar is expecting the arrivals to slow down by mid June.

DDGS remains a competitive protein – energy ingredient in the livestock rations and with more DDGS in the pipeline, pressure is likely to remain. FOB prices of DDGS (US Gulf) was indicated at $241/MT (May) and $236/MT (July) and delivered to Vietnam and China indicated at $300/MT and $285/MT respectively.

Amit Sachdev, India representative, U  S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Corn sowing at midpoint in US, prices remain low; India maize prices stable; DDGS prices are low in US and so is Ethanol for blending, can make a difference for India

CBOT Corn - July 2015 - May 08, 2015 closeUS corn crop is being planted at a fast pace now and as per USDA report almost 55% of the crop has been planted against 19% last week and 28% a year earlier. The weather remains good, which is good sign. The corn prices remain stable and competitive, which also means that the DDGS prices may remain competitive. May contract closed slightly lower than last week at $141.09/MT down 0.33%; Jul stable at $142.91/MT; Sept down 0.32%to $145.03/MT and Dec down 0.53%to $148.89/MT. (Graph on the left – July corn contract – CBOT – May 08, 2015). Buyers may be interested to close deals in future as the prices are lower. China could continue to buy more corn from the world market if the prices remain low and also more amount of DDGS.

FOB prices from US remained somewhat unchanged and FOB (US Gulf) was indicated at $172/MT (May), down to $169/MT in July. FOB (PNW) was indicated at $179/MT. India maize spot prices moved up and at Bihar the prices ranged between Rs.10700 – 11100/MT for graded maize. Bihar was the only location where prices tended to move lower and at Gulabbagh (NCDEX spot), the price was Rs.11260/MT. At other locations prices were quoted in the range of Rs.12900/MT in Nizamabad to a high of Rs.13800/MT at Sangli. Even with the low price in Gulabbagh, the FOB price would be $210/MT when the rupee is depreciated against the dollar and could be trading at Rs.65 to a dollar.Delivered prices of maize to Gujarat remain at Rs.13800-14000/MT.

DDGS prices in the US remain favourable and can be used in poultry and dairy rations. Current FOB price (US Gulf) indicated at $240/MT (may) , down to $235/MT in July, PNW delivered prices quoted at 241/MT inMay, down to $236/MT in July. Delivered prices to Vietnam down to$295/MT and to China at $275/MT.

As the corn prices are low, it is reflected in Ethanol prices as well in the US. In may be noted that the ethanol producedEthanol futures - July 2015 - May 08, 2015 in US from Corn is used for blending in Gasoline as an ‘oxygenate’. DDGS is a co-product from the ethanol manufacturing process. Earlier Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) was used and as an ‘Oxygenate{ and later ethanol as MTBE is found to be harmful and leads to more air pollution. Ethanol as per the the Refiners Fuels Association (RFA) has 35% oxygen and burns easily and reduced tailpipe emissions. India too has a mandate of using 5% ethanol in petrol, and to increase the blending %age to 10%. But the effective average blending in country is only 2.74% and in some states it cannot be used. Some states may be blending it at 5% level or more, but in most cases it is less than the mandate. The Oil marketing companies buy ethanol from sugar mills (made from molasses) and GOI has get the price of Rs.42/liter (Ex Factory). Interestingly in the US the price is open and ethanol is traded on CBOT. The current price is $1.60/gallon (Graphs on the right – July Ethanol future – May 8, 2015) and converted will be Rs.27.68/litre, With additional freight costs and a duty on denatured ethanol at 7.5% it could very well reach Indian shores at about Rs.38/litre. While GOI rules do not allow use of grain based ethanol for blending, the denatured alcohol could be used for chemical purposes by some industries) and the molasses based be used for blending. With the current discussion on air pollution taking a toll on health of people, specially children in cities specially in Delhi, Bombay, Chennai, Hyderabad and Bangalore, blending ethanol to petrol upto the mandated level and moving ot to higher level would be step forward.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com 

     

  

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Corn prices in US down, sowing continues at fast pace; DDGS and other plant proteins very competitive in the world; Ingredient prices in India are higher

The sowing pace of corn in the US is faster than last year at 19%. The 5 year average was 25% and with drier weather, corn will be planted at the right time. Prices continue to come down for corn and the co-product prices too, specially DDGS. There is also pressure from SBM from South America and that is also causing prices of DDGS to be very competitive.

Corn on CBOT closed 1.5-2% lower this week. May down 1.32% to $141.57/MT. Jul down 1.79%to $142.91/MT; Sept down 2.07% to $145.50/MT and Dec down 2.06% to $149.68/MT. This has also helped the FOB prices to be lower than last week and the FOB US GULF prices of corn was indicated at $172 and could be down to $170/Mt for July delivery. FOB PNW indicated at $179/MT, down $3/MT this week. Argentine corn is indicated at $168 May delivery and $172/MT July delivery. Similarly Brazil corn at $166/MT in May and $170/MT FOB in July; Black sea corn  at $160/Mt May is a competitive price.

DDGS prices on FOB basis (US Gulf and PNW) were down by $13/MT against last week and were quoted at $233 – 230/MT and $242/Mt for the period May-Jul for the two locations. Delivered prices of DDGS to Vietnam and China were also down and were indicated at $303/MT and $286/Mt respectively. July delivery price of DDGS to China is indicated at $280/MT. SBM prices are also putting pressure in DDGS and ae being quotes at $358/Mt from Brazilian;   $370/MT Argentine SBM and $410/MT US SBM. Indian SBM price at this point is about Rs.40000/MT ($634/MT) in the domestic market.  Another 4 months to go before the new plant protein crop becomes available and these higher prices will certainly give a jolt to the domestic livestock sector. Corresponding CGM price is US is indicated at $690/MT in May and down to $685/MT in July.

In the domestic market maize prices continue to move upward in all markets, except in Gulabbagh where arrivals are putting downward pressure on the price, which is indicated at Rs.11880/MT the NCDEX delivery centre. Current farmer selling price is ranging between Rs.11000-11500/MT depending on the quality. At other locations, like Telangana – delivered price is being quoted at Rs.13400/Mt; Gujarat 14000/MT. On the exchange (NCDEX), While May prices were up at Rs.12140/MT, June and July prices closed lower than last week at Rs.12140/Mt and $12340/MT respectively.

Barley prices in India have tended to move up at Jaipur (Spot) and were indicated at Rs.12639/MT, possible due to delayed arrivals in North India and crop damage due  to unseasonal rains.  In the US, feed barley was quote at $240/MT and Malting barley was indicated at $250/MT at Idaho and $265/MT at Minneapolis.

A recent study acknowledges that the weather pattern in India has changed and that the monsoon peaks later than normal. The withdrawal of the monsoon is now mid October and suggests that the sowing should be done accordingly. The farmers should move away from the normal/traditional systems and adopt scientific means and seek weather information before making a decision to plant.

Freight rates remain stable mostly and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan freight being indicated at $30.75/MT and $17/MT respectively. USG-China and PNW-China is indicated at $29.5/MT and $16/Mt respectively. Argentina/Brazil to China freight was indicated in the range of $22.75-31/MT depending on the port, ship load and the discharge.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council – E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Corn prices in US down; Prices in India up on reports of damage in Bihar; Bangladesh maize too damaged

CBOT - July contract - Apr 24, 2015 closeCorn planting in the US is in full swing and about 9% sowing is complete. The weather is good and this will aid in the sowing of corn in US. There is also a view that in spring the feed demand is likely to be reduced and animals will be in pasture and that has led to future prices going down at least  for now. May contract closed 4% lower at $143.46/MT; July down 4% to $145.50/MT; Sept down 4.21% to $148.57/MT and DEc down 3.72% to $152.83/MT. Lower corn prices on CBOT were reflected on the FOB prices as well, which were indicated at $175/MT (May) down to $170/MT (July) for FOB US Gulf and prices at PNW were indicated at $182/MT for Jun/July delivery.

In contrast, Indian maize futures were up and possible reasons – storms damage to maize in Bihar in the last two days which could have affected the crop by about 10%; IMD monsoon forecast suggesting below normal rains second year in a row. Apr contract expired up 0.34% at Rs.11910/MT; May up 2.97% to Rs.12130/MT; Jun up 2.26% to Rs.12240/MT; Jul up 4.25% to Rs.12500/MT and Aug stable at Rs.12030/MT. Spot prices in Gulabbagh were down by 6.23% at Rs.12683/MT, which saw increased arrivals in the last week. In all likely hood prices are bound to go up if there is damage of maize in Bihar. More rains this week are forecast in eastern parts of the country, including Bihar. Current prices at markets are Rs.12000-12300/MT and delivery to Gujarat at Rs.14000/MT.

Crop damage has also been reported in Bangladesh in the maize belt. Production estimate now is just about 1 MMT and this could mean increased prices in Bangladesh and pressure on India/Bihar to supply maize early and hence higher prices. International prices are such that it is feasible to import at Gujarat at a cheaper price than from Bihar.

Lower corn prices, reduced offtake of DDGS is reflected in the DDGS prices which are now at $255/MT (May) and $250 (July) delivery on FOB basis at both US Gulf or rail delivered to PNW. Delivered prices to Vietnam and China are also down and indicated at $313/MT and $288/MT respectively.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

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Maize prices remain up on delayed harvest; US planting slow, markets may turn volatile

Maize prices in Bihar the major Rabi producer remain stable. The deliveries remain slow and may continue to be so as the harvest is delayed. Rains in the last couple of days has left the fields wet, making it difficult for farmers to harvest the crop. Current rake point delivery in Bihar is being quoted at Rs.13000/MT and as the deliveries may be staggered, farmers will be the gainers in this case and prices may not drop as expected. Indian maize remains out of the export market due to higher domestic prices and imports are feasible still at the western ports for the consumer industries.

On NCDEX the future maize prices came down on April 10 and since then have been stable. Apr Rs.11870/MT; May Rs.11780/MT; Jun Rs.11970/MT; Jul RS.11990/MT and Aug Rs.12030/MT. Spot prices in in almost all the markets are close to MSP of Rs.13100/MT, but again it must be noted that these prices are at NCDEX delivery point, tax paid and farmer recovery is below MSP. In Sangli the spot price is Rs.13700/MT, but the deliveries are much less. The states wherein Rabi crop will be harvested have received rains and hence the harvest is delayed. With the birdflu declared in Hyderabad region, the demand for the poultry sector is expected is likely to be curtailed atleast for some time until the demand picks up.

US corn prices have remained almost stable on CBOT and May contract closing a tad higher at $149.44/MT, up 0.69% against Apr 10, 2015 close of $148.42 /MT; July up 0.48% to $153.20/MT; Sept up0.38% to $155.11/MT and Dec up 0.17% to $158.73/MT. The FOB prices too have not changed much and are being quoted at $177-178/MT FOB (US Gulf) and $185/MT (PNW). Argentine corn price is being quoted at $175/MT immediate deliveries and moving up to $180/Mt over a two-month period. Brazilian corn at $172/MT now; Black sea $168-172/MT for April-Jun delivery. French corn at $170-176/MT for a two month period (Apr-Jun)

Planting in the US continues at a pace slower than last year and as on April 12, 2015 was reported at 2% only. Few of the states have not even started planting and if the planting is delayed in the corn belt, the prices may turn volatile faster. Next few days will be interesting to watch specially on the progress of planting in US and its affect of the world prices.

DDGS prices were down this week on FOB T $255/MT (US Gulf) and $251/MT (PNW). There was though no change in the delivered prices in Vietnam and China, which were indicate at $330/MT and $309/MT respectively. CGM price was also down as DDGS prices slipped lower to $690/MT, but if corn prices move up, it highly unlikely that DDGS prices would remain lower.

International freight rates have remained more or less stable and the benchmark US Gulf-japan being quoted at $31/MT; PNW-japan at $17/MT; US Gulf – China being quoted at $29.5/MT and PNW – China at $ 16.5/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China freight rates ranged between $31/MT on a high and $22.75/MT on minimum.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Delayed harvest keeps prices up in India; Import parity exists; US prices move lower on higher stock level

It was a short week as the markets were closed due to Good Friday in US and also in India. Some markets were also closed on Thursday and hence no major change in the market was expected. Rains continued to lash part of Northwest India and continues in Uttar Pradesh and onward to Bihar, delaying the harvest and keeping the spices up and stable. There are no reports of damage as the crop is standing and there is anxiety on the arrivals. The prices of stocks available in Bihar are ranging between Rs.13500-14000/Mt, which is high  While there is buying pressure (demand), demand is restricted, which is likely to keep the prices up for some time at least. As the stocks will arrive in first week of May, the prices may show a declining trend. At that time also, exports may not be feasible as world prices are likely to remain low.

Global corn ending stocks for the 2014/2015 marketing year are projected to be at 185.3 MMT, highest since 1999/2000, when the stocks were at 194.4 MMT. This was also the year, when India imported corn for the first time and this year too, there is parity, especially for French Non GM corn. The prices of French corn are at all time low of $170/MT (FOB) and it could be delivered to India at $205/MT, much lower than the delivered price of corn in Gujarat at this time, which is ranging between $222-230/MT (Rs.14000-14500/MT).

The future prices in India moved up this week, possibly on news of delayed harvest. Apr contract up 0.16% to Rs.12230/MT; May up 1.79% to Rs.11920/MT; Jun up 2.69% to Rs.12230/MT; July up 4.65% to Rs.12160/MT. Spot prices in Gulabbagh moved up by 0.21 to RS.14563/MT. Spot prices in other markets  were down, Nizamabad down 0.47% to Rs.12683/MT; Davangere down 2.17%to Rs.13500/MT; Karimnagar down 0.77% to Rs.12900/MT and Sangli was stable at Rs.13800/MT.

Even though the USDA’s planting intentions report, which was released on Mar 31, 2015 indicated 1.5% drop in acreage of corn in the US and it will be third year in a row that the area would go down, and if all goes well with weather, US could still produce a big crop, thanks to high productivity. (Report on http://www.techproindia.in/usgc/2015/04/us-farmers-intend-to-plant-less-corn-and-more-soybean.html)

CBOT Close - May contract - April 2, 2015As the market reacted to the USDA reports, prices were down and May contract reached a low of $148.12/MT and finally gained back some of the lost ground, but still by the time markets closed on April 02, 2015 (Thursday), all future contracts in US were down. May down 1.52%to $152.16/MT; Jul down 1.13% to $155.31/MT and Sept down 1.14% to $158.16/MT. This did affect the FOB prices of corn, which were down at $179/MT (FOB US Gulf) and $191/MT (FOB, PNW). Argentine corn was indicated at $174/MT; Brazilian at $177/MT; Black Sea at $.175/MT and French corn at $169/Mt now and expected to be at $179/MT by Jun. (All prices are FOB basis in respective countries).

DDGS prices have remained stable this week and the FOB prices were indicated at $267/MT (US Gulf as well as rail delivered to PNW. DDGS delivered to Vietnam and China was indicated at $341/MT and $316/MT respectively. Corn gluten prices were down by $14/MT this week and were indicated at $711/MT.

Freight rates remain stable and the benchmark US Gulf-japan freight was indicated at $31/MT. PNW-Japan freight indicated at $17/MT. US Gulf-China is up at $30/MT; PNW-China at $16.50/MT and Argentine-Brazil to China was indicated at $23.50/MT (Minimum) to a high of $31/MT (Maximum).

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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USGC Grain News – April 2015

The USGC Grain News – April 2015 is now available on the web to download and read. Topics in this edition include

  • Balanced U.S. export system generates transport efficiencies
  • Labor issues can hinder transport efforts
  • Railways facilitate grain movement to markets
  • Waterways provide efficient movement of U.S. Grains
  • U.S. export grain grading process
  • Export ports serve as hub for international grain trade

Use the link below to open the April 2015 edition of Grain News

USGC Grain News April 2015

Should you need any clarifications, please feel free to contact U S Grains Council

 Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council – E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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US farmers intend to plant less corn and more soybean

Planting intentions 2015USDA came out with the 2015 planting intentions report on Mar 31, 2015 . The report is based on the survey of the farmers on what they will plant

In 2015, farmers in the US will be planting corn on 89.199 mill acres against 90.597 million acres planted in 2014. This is about 1.54 percent lower than the 2014 planting and will be the lowest corn acres since 2010 as per the report. As on Mar 01, 2014, USDA has pegged the corn stocks at 19Corn soya planting in years in USA6.596 MMT, up 11 percent against last year’s Mar 01 stocks.

Farmers are projected to plant barley on 3.258 million acres, against 2.975 million acres planted in 2014, up by 9.51 percent.

Farmers are projected to plant Sorghum on 7.9 million acres, against 7.138 million acres planted in 2014, up by 10.67 percent.

Farmers are projected to plant Soybean on 84.635 million acres, against 83.701 million acres planted in 2014, up by 1.12 percent.

Details

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-31-2015.pdf

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More rains expected in India, could lead to damage; Spot prices down on increased deliveries; US corn prices remain up, corn area expected to be down

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast more rains in North West and North east India, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the rains could extend to Mizoram as well in the east. The rains are also expected in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. This could cause some damage to standing crops like wheat, maize in these areas, where the crops is harvested and is put out on the land to dry. Water logging in the standing crop could also damage crops. As per reports available extensive damage to wheat and mustard crop has been reported from Rajasthan (Almost 20% of land under wheat affected).

Deliveries of Maize in the production centres continued this week in India and the prices were down in the spot market. Nizamabad down 1.74% to Rs.12743/MT; Karimnagar down 1.52% to Rs.13000/MT and Sangli down 0.36% to Rs.13800/MT. Prices in Davangere were up by 5.14%to Rs.13800/MT and also in Gulabbagh by 2.01% to Rs.14532/MT. More demand suddenly coming on to Bihar wherein stocks could be limited. Karnataka maize is getting over, which is leading to higher prices. Average market yard prices in Karnataka was Rs.12483/MT, up 4.38% against last week.  With the Rabi crop harvest on way, future prices are showing a  down trend. April down 2.69% to Rs.12300/MT; May down 0.34%to Rs.11710/MT; Jun down 1.73% to Rs.11910/MT and July down 4.44%to Rs.11620/MT.

The situation is completely opposite in the US as future prices continue to move up. The main reason is expected lower area under corn in 2015 and hence price being volatile. Reports suggest US farmers could plant corn on 87-89.7 mill acres, down 1.9 million acres on average.   As on Mar 01, 2015 the corn stocks were at 193.75 MMT and is higher than last year stocks by 15.74 MMT. It is expected that the US farmers would put more land under soybean, an additional 2.17 million acres and take it to 85.872 million acres in 2015. (This at this point is only based on a sample survey and the final USDA report will be out on Mar 31, 2015).  May contract up 1.56% to $153.93/MT; Jul up 1.63% to $157.08/MT and Sept up 1.55% to $159.99/MT. This also resulted is a small increase in FOB prices which are indicated at $181/MT (US Gulf) and $193/MT (PNW).

On the DDGS front, the prices will be dependent on the corn prices for sure and it there is any indication, corn prices may remain up, moving the DDGS prices upward for some time at least. Current FOB prices indicated at $257/MT  (US Gulf) and $267/MT (Rail delivered to (PNW). Container fright rates are increasing and that could affect the delivered prices much more. CNF prices to Vietnam and China were indicated at $341 and $313/Mr respectively. While corn prices may have a upward affect on DDGS prices, as summer sets in and demand for ethanol goes up in the US (for blending into gasoline), which would mean more corn usage and hence more DDGS production, prices could remain stable, but the factor could be container freight. CGM prices moved up by $25/MT to $725/MT

Barley prices in the last one week in India have declined as deliveries are cooming in, SPOT priec at Jaipur down 17.64% to Rs.11569/MT.  On the exchange April down 3.14% to Rs.11120/MT; May down 2.92% to Rs.11150/MT; Jun down 3.01%to Rs.11420/MT and July down 0.54% to Rs.12000/MT. US feed barley was indicated at $260/MT.

Freight rates remain stable and the benchmark US Gulf-japan freight was indicated at $32/MT. PNW-Japan freight indicated at $18/MT. US Gulf-China is up at $30.50/MT; PNW-China at $17/MT and Argentine-Brazil to China was indicated at $23.50/MT (Minimum) to a high of $31.5/MT (Maximum).

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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