Maize sowing slow, will catch up, prices up; US corn prices drop on higher ending stocks; DDGS remains an affordable protein source

Overall, maize sowing has been lagging behind last year sowing by 5.41%, though overall coarse cereals sowing has been good and 14.4% above last year. 5.249 Mill hac of maize area had been sown as on Jul 14 2017, which is 71.57% of the total areas (5 year average) as per data available from Ministry of Agriculture.

Demand of chicken remains stable in most areas, but due to the Hindu festivals, the prices are weak. In Maharashtra region live chicken prices were Rs.100-105/kg on July 06, 2017 which is down by 25% and ranging between Rs.74-75/kg on Jul 16, 2017.
Maize prices on the spot market moved up this week. Jalgaon up 4.31% to Rs.15125/MT; Nizamabad up 1.14% too Rs.16350/MT; Davangere up 2.98% to Rs.17300/MT; Sangli up 0.73%to Rs.17150/MMT and Gulabbagh up 0.12% top Rs.13516/MT. Future prices too have been moving upward. Oct kharif, which would be the key first month Kharif contract for new crop, closed 1.03% higher than last week’s close at Rs.16620/MT.

In the US, while the weather forecast predict hot weather conditions for few days and this could keep the prices higher, the WASDE report projected higher ending corn stocks bringing the prices down. Jul corn closed at $143.77/MT, down 4.45%; Sept $148.10/MT down 4.13%; Dec $153.30/MT down 3.76% and Mar 2018 closed at $157.55/MT down 3.24%. WASDE report of Jul 12, 2017 has projected corn yield of 4.335 MT/acre and production of 362 MMT and total supplies of 423 MMT (begging stocks of 60.198 MMT and some imports). Feed/residual is estimated at 139 MMT and Food/Seed/Industrial use at 177.* MMT, of which 139.7 MMT will be used for ethanol production. US is expected to export 47.625 MMT of corn and the ending stocks will be 59.055 MMT.

US corn on FOB basis was indicated at $157-161/MT (US Gulf) and $167-170/Mt (US PNW). Argentine corn for Aug/Spet supplies is indicated at $154-157/MT and Brazilian corn indicated t $154-158/MT. Black Sea corn indicated at $170-175/MT (All price son FOB basis at respective country ports).

US DDGS prices have tended to move up as there is demand but at the same time as corn prices were up for three weeks, which has increased the prices. US DDGS on FOB basis is prices at $170/MT and PNW $192/MT (In Bulk). Delivered prices for DDGS in 40 ft containers to Vietnam $183/MT in July and upward of $192/MT in Sept; China $188/MT in July – Sept period; Chittagong at $214/MT and Myanmar at $213/MT. For the period Jan – May 2017, Bangladesh has imported 28,969 MT of DDGS, Pakistan 17764 MT and Myanmar 11686 MT. The world has imported 4.648 MMT of US DDGS. On a per protein basis, DDGS is still a good protein buy against Soybean and carries a differential of $1.34 in favour of DDGS.

US ethanol prices have moved up as well as corn prices were up. Aug ethanol contract closes at $0.153/gallon (0.4069/liter) up 1.32%; Sep up 0.92% to $4069/Liter; Oct up 0.39% to $0.4048/Liter and Nov up 0.33% to $0.40/liter. As per a report, Delhi had a good air day after 9 months and it was only due to the rains and noting to do with the Air pollution management.

Amit Sachdev, Serving Agriculture and Livestock in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: amit@techproindia.in

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US corn prices drop; India maize up; DDGS remains competitive; Ethanol, as renewable energy source, prices drop

US corn prices were down as good weather conditions prevailed and good weather is expected over the next 10 days, which is likely to boost corn growth in the US. The crop conditions remain good as per the last report from USA. Excellent 12%; Good 55% and fair 25%. On the CBOT prices were down by over 6% over theist week. Jul down 6.87% to $140.78/MT; Sep down 6.79% to $143.85/MT; Dec down 6.67% to $147.71/MT and Mar 2018 down 6.52% to $151.57/MT. This also led to US corn prices on FOB basis slide a bit lower and price at US Gulf was indicated at $159-160/MT (Jul-Sep); PNW indicated at $164-166/MT (Jul-Sep). Argentine corn prices too were down a bit and indicated at $147-154/MT and Brazilian corn at $152-158/MT for Aug-Sep delivery. Black Sea (Ukrainian) corn is priced T $167-172/MT for the same period. Report indicate that the Ukrainian corn crop is good and Brazil is also going to harvest a good record crop.

Indian maize prices in the spot market were relatively up last week, Jalgaon up 1.93% to Rs.14500/MT; Nizamabad up 1.84% to Rs.15362/MT; davanagere up 1.71% to Rs.16350/MT and Gulabbagh also up by 1.56% to 12625/MT. There seems to be no parity for export and Bangladesh is expected to import cheeper corn from the world market. Indian maize sowing is moving on a sow pace and is just about 0.944 million hac, same as last year and only about 12% of the area planted. Soybean has been sown in 0.597 mill hac against 0.315 mill hac last year and 5.14% of the area is covered. Sugarcane has been sown in 4.752 Mill hac, up 6% against last year and this is about 94% of the normal five year average area on which sugarcane is grown. Pulses area is cruising along and only 0.597 mill hac has been sown, against 0.901 mill hac that was sown last year, down over 33%.

Overall as on Jun 22, 2017, India had received 4% more than than the average, but it was not  a level playing field.North West India as per the report from IMD had received 46% more rains than the average and South peninsula 8% more. The two other divisions, East and North east 6% lower rains and Central India 3% lower. As the monsoon covers India, the anomaly may be corrected.

The livestock feed market continues to gain traction and with that the demand of DDGS as feed ingredient in the world market and around India as well. The prices of DDGS remain competitive in the US market, priced 15% lower than SBM on a per percent protein basis. While US SBM is priced at $323/Mt for 48% protein on FOB basis, US DDGS is priced at %160/MT for 28% protein. Other countries are using DDGS as an ingredient of choice in poultry, dairy, fish feeds. It delivered optic to Vietnam is $191/MT and in China $181/MT. Delivered price to Chittagong and Myanmar is indicated at $206/Mt. Indian SBM is prices at Rs.24000/MT (FOB) ($$\369) and US DDGS delivered is at this point cheaper than even Indian SBM on per percent protein in Chittagong, making it a much cheeper feed ingredient that can be used.

As the corn prices in the US have dropped, so have the ethanol prices, by at least 5% for July and Aug on CBOT. Last week, prices were over 0.415/liter and this week dropped to 0.394/litre on average for July-Aug, making it a cheap renewable energy source and an additive that can help India lower its emissions, reduce air pollution. Most of India’s cities and including those in National Capital Region have a severe Air Pollution problem, which ethanol cannot not be termed as a one silver bullet it could be a renewable energy solution to be looked into.

Amit Sachdev, Serving Agriculture and Livestock in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: amit@techproindia.in

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Higher MSP for maize for 2017; Maize prices continue on a downward trend; DDGS is competitive against SBM

GOI increased the Minimum Support Price for grains, pulses and oil seeds in the range of 4 – 10%. The prices will be effective Oct 1, 2017 in the new kharif season.

Few indications

Corn/Maize 14250/MT, +600/MT, increased by 4.40%. Current market price in Bihar Rs.12000/MT. Soybean 30500/MT, +2750/MT, increased by 9.91%, Current market price Rs.24500/MT; Arhar (Pigeon Pea) 54500/MT, +4000/MT, increased by 7.92%. market price 36500/MT. Consider the fact that the world is flush with corn and as per the latest WASDE report world ending stocks will be 195.27 MMT. Maize growers are in India are planting more corn, at this time up about 7% and almost 8% sowing is complete (based on last 5 year average). If weather remains good as is expected, expect more maize in India.

US corn crop conditions remain good, 67% as good to excellent and 25% fair. While there were some hot days, but the weather is good as for now and is likely to remain good in July as well, expect a good crop. US corn prices on CBOT were down. Jul $151.97/MT down 0.93%; Sep $154.32/MT down 0.91%; Dec $158.26/MT down 0.99% and Mar $161.88/MT down 0.82%. FOB prices were more or less stable at $163-166/MT (Jun-Sep) for US Gulf and at PNW prices were indicated at $171/MT. Argentine corn prices at $156-162/MT (Aug-Sep); Brazil $156-161/MT (Aug-Sep); Black sea corn at $166-170/MT (All prices on FOB basis at respective ports). Brazilian corn production is expected at 97 MMT in 2017, a much bigger crop, which is expected to keep the prices in check.

There is ample supply on maize in India especially from Bihar and prices have dropped, currently at Rs.12000/MT at the rake point, where maize is loaded on the train. Delivered prices to various  locations range from Rs.13500/MT – to UP and  Rs.15500/MT to Gujarat.  A mixed bag for prices in other locations. Spot price in Jalgaon down 1.04% to Rs.14225/MT, Sangli up 1.53% to Rs.16600/Mt; Gulabbagh down 1.34% to Rs.12431/MT

DDGS remains a good buy, prices $161/MT (US Gulf) delivered to Vietnam at $191/MT and to China at $181/Mt in 40 ft containers. Delivered price to Chittagong (Bangladesh) $208 and to Myanmar $206/MT, making it a value proposition for use in poultry, dairy and fish rations. Expect the production of DDGS to increase as more ethanol gets produced in the summer months in the US.

US SBM is priced at $332/Mt for 48% protein, $6.91 per % protein and DDGS at $161/Mt for 28% protein, $5.75 per % protein. In addition to protein DDGS also provides energy via 7% oil it contains.

US ethanol prices moved up little and Jul contract on CBOT closed at $1.571/Gallon (0.4156/liter), up 1.35%; Aug $0.4167/Liter, up 1.48%; Sep $0.4130/Liter, up 0.71% and Oct $0.4048/Liter, down 0.84%. Countries continue to import ethanol to blend in fuel to mitigate Air Pollution. India does produce ethanol, via the molasses route, but in the next 4 months there will be limited/no production as the sugar mills will be closed in monsoon season. The new production will start in Oct 2017 only and until then, expect limited use of ethanol in the gasoline/petrol in India.

The benchmark freight rates showed have shown a decline over theist one month or so. Benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $36.25/MT; PNW-Japan $18.5/MT; US Gulf-China $35.5/MT; PNW-China $17.5/MT; Argentina-Brazil to China ranged between $32-23.75/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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Indian Maize prices down, but not competitive enough for the world; DDGS prices up, but still competitive

Monsoon reached India, sowing has started and moving at a good pace. maize has been plated on 0.307 million hac and still a long way to go. Overall prices of maize have declined in the market and in Bihar the prices were Rs.12400 per MT at the rake point and delivered to destinations at 15500/MT, approximately $238/MT, higher than the world prices. In most of the locations, US corn is delivered in containers at prices ranging from $199-208/MT, making their products more competitive in the world market. Bulk prices would still be cheaper as FOB prices are close to $165 (FOB (US Gulf) and $175/MT  (PNW).

Screen Shot 2017-06-12 at 11.00.45 AMAlmost 96% of the crop has been planted in the US and there has been some dry weather which is cause of concern in some areas and that led to higher prices of corn on CBOT. July corn closed at $152.59/MT, up 4.05%; Set $155.74/MT, up 3.90%; Dec $159.83/MT, up 3.84% and mar 2018 $163.22/MT up 3.46%. Higher corn prices also translated into higher DDGS prices somewhat and it was quoted at $160/MT US Gulf and $178/MT PNW. These prices are in Bulk. Delivered prices in containers to Vietnam were $191/MT and $189/Mt to China. In close by areas, deliveries to Bangladesh are being quoted at $208/MT (for 40 feet containers). Bulk prices again will be little lower and Pakistan buyers have purchased DDGS in bulk at lower prices. From Jan to Apr 2017, Bangladesh has purchased almost 23,000 MT of DDGS, up rom last year’s 4185 MT; Myanmar has purchased 8790 MT from Jan – April 2017 against last year’s 3733 MT. Pakistan too has purchased some 17,000 MT. Overall most countries continue to purchase and use DDGS as it is consistently available and a attractive prices. Currently DDGS is priced at 97% of corn on FOB basis.

Ethanol prices in US showed a decline this week and might move up as corn prices moved up. Jul $0.4101/lit; Aug $0.4106/Lit; Sep $0.4101/Lit; and Oct $0.4082/lit. While in most cities, a Air Plan has been put in place, but it is only to monitor the air pollution and nothing on finding a solution to Air pollution. India’s demand of petrol continues to grow. In May 2017, the demand of petrol grew by 15% and one the next few months as the demand will grow, the blending of petrol with gasoline will actually be lower. As monsoon covers India, the Air Pollution will not be a major problem, but as we move into winter – starting Nov 2017, the problem is going to come back.

Amit Sachdev, Advisor, US Grains Council (India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka); E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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India maize prices stable, but higher than the world; DDGS could make Indian livestock production viable

India is expected to get a normal rain in 2017 monsoon. Expectations are high for the Khariff crop as farmers get ready to plant the new crop of maize. In the US, on the other hand almost 85% of the maize crop has been planted. There have been some weather related breaks in the sowing of corn in the US, but overall it still looks good.

On the price front, Indian maize prices did not rally much on a weekly basis and have been range bound, even though the crop is being harvested. Jalgaon prices were in the range of Rs.14000-14250/MT, down 1.72% over last month; Nizamabad 15200-15300/MT, down 0.75% over last month; Davangere in the range 16100-16250/MT, down 0.31% over last month; Sangli in the range of Rs.15900-16100/MT down 1.85% over last month and Gulabbagh din the range of Rs.12600-12800/MT, down 4.17% over last month. This was the max it could do as the supplies were slow and within May, there were few days when rains did effect the supplies to the markets/delivery points.

Indian maize continues to be be highest priced in the world market and even though as per GOI data, India has produced over 26 MMT of maize, India will not be able to export. FOB value will be $250/MT, where as the world prices are much lower. US corn on CBOT was up by about 0.5% and ranged between $147.31/MT for Jul 2017 and $150.23/Mt for Sept 2017 (which will be 2016 harvested crop) and prices for Dec 2017 were $154.48/MT and for Mar 2018 at $158.34/MT. FOB prices were indicated at $162-163/MT (US Gulf) and $173-174/MT (PNW) for delivery in Jun-Aug period. Argentine corn was indicated at $153-160/MT and Brazilian corn at $159-163/Mt for the period Aug-Sept 2017. Brazil corn though is prices lower, there are issues with the port infrastructure also. Black sea corn this week was indicated at $164-168/MT.

As with the prices of corn which has come down in the one month period, the freight costs have also come down in one month period, making corn consuming industries in importing countries more viable and competitive. The benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight this week was down 0.67% to $37/MT and over a month was down by 6.92%. PNW – Japan freight was down 2.56% this week to $19/MT, down 9.52% over last month. US Gulf-China indicated at $36/MT down 0.69% over last week and down 7.10% over last month; PNW china indicated at $18/MT, down 1.37% over last week and 10% over last month.

DDGS prices have been moving up this week and indicated at $155/MT in bulk US Gulf, up. 4.73% against last week. Prices were up 5.44% over last month. This also means that there is ample demand in the market, which is leading to prices moving up and it still is feasible buy for use as a fed ingredient of choice in poultry, dairy and aqua feeds. Delivered prices of DDGS to Vietnam in containers was indicated at 182/MT (Same as last week) and up 4% against last month. CNF China was  $177/Mt and no change against last week or up 1.14% against last month. in 2016, Indian neighbours purchased more DDGS. Bangladesh 38,900 MT and for the period Jan-Mar 2017, 17800 MT has been imported (Most of those imports were in containers). Pakistan imported 64900 MT in 2016 and for the period Jan -Mar 2017, 16127 MT has been imported. Myanmar imported 25040 MT in 2016; 4978 MT has been imported in the first three (3) month of the year 2017. It is a product/ingredient that can potentially reduce feed cost and ultimately cost of production of chicken, eggs and milk. India is an exporter of marine products and farmed fish and shrimp can also be fed with DDGS, making it more competitive.

US ethanol prices too have been down. Though against last week, the prices were up by 2.49% and indicated in the range of $0.4021-0.4066/litre. Against last month the price are down by 2.59% for June, for July though the price is down by 0.90% to $0.4066/litre.

Over the last few days, it has been pleasant weather, rain and winds, which have helped mitigating the Air pollution in Delhi and surrounding areas, but this may not last for long and ethanol in gasoline is one way to mitigate Air pollution most effectively. A clean burning fuel additive is what India needs and ethanol is one such additive the world has, which is cheap and can be used effectively and efficiently.

It is not only the air pollution, but the price difference that gets passed on to the consumer. E0 – no ethanol gasoline is priced at the pump at $2.44/gallon, while E10 (with 10% ethanol) priced at $2.14/gallon; E15 (with 15% ethanol) priced at $2.04/gallon; E30 (with 30% ethanol) prices at $1.99/gallon and E85 (with 85% ethanol) at $1.74/gallon. In the last one year, the prices of E10 have remained lower than E0 in the US and it has made sense for US consumers to use less fossil fuel and more of ethanol. In addition, it is the choice of the consumer and at the same time, the type of the vehicle the customer drives. It is not only the saving’s but the octane value that the customer gets. Ethanol as on date could be the cheapest source of octane.

Amit Sachdev, Advisor, US Grains Council (India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka); E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com 

 

 

 

 

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Ethanol & DDGS benefit environment; Both are competitively priced corn co-products for different uses; India’s maize prices remain higher

Ethanol and DDGS both have environment befits, one through fuel and the other one through livestock feed; both are priced competitively for their respective use. Both the products are made from corn. While Ethanol can be used as a clean burning fuel additive, recent studies reveal that feeding DDGS to dairy cattle  as well and poultry not only helps in providing quality protein and energy, but also has environmental benefits.  Feeding DDGS to dairy cows was found to reduce methane production and reduce phosphorus excretion in poultry manure. Both findings have significant environmental benefits, those of lowering greenhouse gas emissions and reducing phosphorous runoff from manure-fertilized fields. Ethanol has a place in fighting air pollution while DDGS has a place as a feed ingredient to achieve achieve production levels and environmental goals, which certainly have a value in today’s times of climate change. 

DDGS prices in the world market have remained stable to about one month now, FOB prices (US Gulf)  are indicated at $147/MT and PNW at $169/MT. Delivered prices to Vietnam and China at $175/MT. It is worth a buy and including in livestock rations at these prices. Unit price per protein on FOB basis for US DDGS is $5.25 agains US SBM at $7.29.  If the prices for Indian SBM delivered to a feed mill is  taken into account at Rs.28000/MT with 44% protein, value per unit of protein is Rs.636. IF USDDGS is imported duty free into India, delivered to feed mill at Rs.13200/MT, with 28% protein, per unit protein value would be Rs.482 an + 7% fat (providing energy) and gene the environmental benefits are not accounted for.

Acknowledging that Delhi air is bad, the government of Delhi wants all schools to install Air Purifiers. Can it help? Instead it is important that the fuel quality be improved by adding clean burning additives like ethanol that will help in  solving some of Delhi’s air pollution problems in the long run. There are several studies to prove that the biofuel policy should be aimed at not only at energy security, but also overall economy and the environmental benefits that can accrue with the use of ethanol in an economy. In the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) countries, the basis aim of introducing ethanol blending fuel was reducing Green House gas Emission (GHG) and diversify transport fuels. Additional benefits as investment in agri sector accrued as the mandates was set and implemented in the countries. Trade was open, unrestricted till the time domestic production cannot fulfill the demand. Trade remains open as the demand is higher than domestic supplies and production of domestic ethanol also continues to increase. Price of ethanol in the US have come down this week, indicated on CBOT at $0.4122/ litre for May, down 4.06% against last week; Jun down 2.68% to $0.4127/litre; Jul down 1.77% top $0.4103/Litre; Aug down 1.34% to $0.4079/Litre and Sep down 0.71% to $0.4053/litre. This when the plants are going on maintenance. There is ample corn, DDGS and ethanol in the US to fulfil the needs and all are priced competitively and

US corn prices however moved up slightly for the next four months on CBOT, indicated at $140.94/MT for May 2017, up 0.28%; Jul up 0.51%to $143.88/MT, Sept up 0.86% to $147.31/MT and Dec up 0.79% to $151.57/MT. Corresponding FOB price US Gulf indicated at $161/MT and PNW at $174/Mt. Argentine and Brazil corn on FOB basis indicated at $158/MT (Aug/Sept) and Black Sea corn (Ukraine) at $169/MT. There is likely to be some pressure on the prices in coming weeks and the weather conditions in South America remain ideal for harvest as well as sowing. US corn has been sown in 17% of the area, a little slow than last year and there is a delay expected as there are rains in Midwest and more rain is expected, which would delay the sowing.

India’s maize harvest continues, but the Spot prices have not softened, expect in Davangere where prices were down this week by 0.92% to Rs.16150/MT and in Gulabbagh (Bihar) where p[rices were down by 0.75% to Rs.13200/MT. Jalgaon prices were up by 0.87% to Rs.14500/MT; Nizamabad up by 0.49% to Rs. 15300/MT and Sangli up by 3.85% to Rs.16200/MT. Since last one month (30 day period), prices are down in Jalgaon by 0.68% and in Gulabgah by 9.28%. In Nizamabad prices are up by 3.62% and in Sangli 5.19%.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

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Ethanol for air pollution mitigation; India harvests maize, prices up; US corn cheaper; DDGS prices drop

As the temperatures move up and Air quality deteriorates as higher temperature, sunshine, actually aid ‘Chemical Reactions’ and create a kind of “gas Soup” which combines with the particles, creating a smog of ground level ozone gas. This makes breathing difficult, especially for those who have respiratory ailments and also for Children and the elderly. While it may not be possible to reduce temperature, but it is possible to reduce the emissions from the cars, by using clean burning fuels and additives like ‘ethanol’, which is being used not only in the US, but also in Brazil, Philippines, Peru and many other nations. Based on the current price of Rs.39/litre ++ (EX sugar mill in India) and additional domestic transport, it is delivered to the a depot of Oil Marketing Company (OMC) at Rs.42/litre is mixed in gasoline, at 5-10% as and when available, it finds its way to the pump and finally the car. India’s demand of gasoline is about 28 billion litres, increasing at 8-10% per year and the demand of gasoline for E -10 blend (10% ethanol and 90% gasoline), would be 2.808 billion litres and the sugar industry has been able to offer 0.81 billion litres in the sugar year 106/17 (ends Oct 2017) which effectively would mean a blend for 2.88% if all gasoline gets blended with ethanol). In some states, it may be higher and is some ZERO as no offer has been received. The current price of US Ethanol is $620/MT and with duty paid it would cost Rs.32.44 per litre, With additional cost of Rs.5 to cover denaturing, transport etc it would cost Rs.37.44 (Max) per litre to the deport.  A clean burning additive that is cheaper and the reduced prices can also be passed on to the consumer. Other nations have been using the clean burning alternative fuel, including ethanol for many years and it has proved to be not only an effective tool to mitigate Air Pollution, but saves money to the consumers by reducing the cost of gasoline and keep the engine clean.

Corn sowing has started in the US and about 6% corn has been sown. It be behind 5-year average, but is just the start and the planting will catch up. US prices were down this week in the range 3.14 – 3.81% on future prices as the market was under pressure due too developments in Brazil, the good weather which is making sure the corn gets planted. may corn was down 3.77% top $140.54/MT; Jul down 3.81%to $143.14/MT; Sept down 3.48% to $146.06/MT and Dec down 3.14% to $150.38/MT. Lower prices got reflected in the FOB prices and US corn was indicated at $156-159/MT (FOB US Gulf) and in the range of $170-174/MT (PNW). It is being quoted as delivered to China at $200/MT, Argentine corn is priced at $153-158/MT (FOB) and Brazilian at in the range of $156-162/MT, Its delivered price to China is about $207/MT. Similarly Black se corn at this time is being at $164-168/MT and may be quoting at $190/MT delivered to China (China is being consisted a point in the Asia region and trying to set a benchmark price around it for the Asian region)..

While some of the ethanol plants are closed for annual maintenance and that should make DDGS prices higher, but the prices have remained stable and DDGS is still priced at 92.3% of corn. It is still the cheapest source of protein (on per percent basis), which US SBM at $7.18 per percent protein and US DDGS at $ 5.14 per percent protein. The difference is also higher this week against last week. US DDGS is indicated $144/MT (FOB) for 28% protein and US SBM at $345/MT for 48% protein.

Maize harvest in India continues and stocks is arriving at the market yards, but the prices remain high. Prices in Bihar at Gulabbagh came down by 0.75% to Rs.13300/MT and delivered prices of corn from Bihar to SouthIndia quoted at Rs.15800-16200/MT. Prices in other locations including Jalgaon up 0.88% to Rs.14375/MT; Nizmabad up 2.18% to Rs.15225/MT; Davangere up 0.46% to Rs.16300/MT; Sangli up 0.48% to Rs.15600/MT. Future prices too have shown an upward trend May Rabi maize up 3.71% to Rs.13700/MT; Jun Rabi up 4.57% to Rs.14180/MT; July rabi up 4.03% to Rs.14470.MT and Aug Rabi up 3.86%t o Rs.14810/MT. This is up when the Rabi harvest has just started.

The benchmark freight rates showed a upward trend this week. Benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $40.5/MT; PNW-Japan $22/MT; US Gulf-China $39.5/MT; PNW-China $21/MT; Argentina-Brazil to China ranged between $40.75-31.50/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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India maize prices stable, US corn prices down; DDGS is a cheapest protein source, prices could move lower

Even though arrivals have started the prices of Indian maize have tended to remain up. The future prices for Apr (Rabi) up 2.31%to Rs.12850/Mt, Apr (Khr) up  2.56% to Rs.14440/MT; May (R) up1.92% to Rs.13300/MT; Mat (Khr) up 2.61% to Rs.14540/MT; Jun (R) up 0.68% to Rs.13340/MT; Jun (Khr) up 2.66% to Rs.14640/MT; Jul (R) up 2.36% to Rs.13460/MT and Jul (Khr) up 2.72% to Rs.14740/MT. Aug (R) closed at Rs.13460/MT and Aug (Khr) at Rs.14840/MT. In the spot market to, prices  were mixed with Jaggaon at Rs.14250/Mt down by 2.40% and in Gulabbagh down by 0.34%to Rs.14500/MT. In Davangere prices were up by 0.31%  to Rs.16200/MT and also in Sangli up by 1.30% to Rs.15600/MT. Prices in Nizamabad were Rs.14766/MT. In Hyderabad region delivered prices were being quoted at Rs.15300-15500/MT delivered to feed mill in the region.

In the US while there was an initial uptrend in corn prices due to a lower expected crop in 2017/18 planted in 90 mill acres that would produce some 365 MMT of corn, which still would be good crop. But in the interim the demand in US is also likely to increase for feed and ethanol use which could keep the prices stable. But there is a also a good South American crop and higher world ending stocks that could keep the prices down. CBOT closed lower against last week, may down 1.32% to $141.49/MT; Jul down 1.18% $144.56/MT; Sept down 1.21% to $147.47/MT. Dec 2017 corn closed at $151.33/MT. US corn on FOB basis (US Gulf) was quoted at $157-160/MT (Apr-Jun delivery) and PNW at $173/MT. US DDGS is still priced at about 93% of the corn on FOB prices, $146-148/MT (US Gulf) and $164-166/Mt (PMW). Delivered prices to Indonesia were indicated at $175/MT; Vietnam $185/MT and China $177/MT. Other corn co-product – CGM was priced at $595/MT. DDGS is the cheapest protein available on FOB basis at $5.25 per percent protein and gives addition 7% fat, which needs to be valued. DDGS could be expected to remain stable or even go down as US farmers will move their cattle out in pastures in spring.

The benchmark freight rates showed a decline this week. Benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $39/MT; PNW-Japan $21/MT; US Gulf-China $38/MT; PNW-China $20.25/MT; Argentina-Brazil to China ranged between $38.25-29/MT.

US ethanol prices moved up on higher demand and somewhat lower production duet o seasonal maintenance of the plants. May up 0.62% top $0.431/litre; Jun up 0.25% to $0.425/litre; Jul down 0.75% to $0.42/liter and Aug closed this week at $0.416/MT. With USD-INR exchange rate at Rs.64.7623 to a dollar, it is cheaper to import these days as it was in last year. India has also removed the tariff on raw sugar for a limited period, and 0.5 MMT of raw sugar can be imported until Jun 12, 2017. This is primarily aimed to keep some of the plants in port areas running and keep sugar prices in check in some regions.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

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US farmers to plant less corn, more Soy; India maize prices stable, new arrivals in Bihar; DDGS prices down, value for money

The planting intentions report from US was out on Mar 31, 2017. Farmers intent to plant little less corn in 2017, 90 million hac against 94 mill hac planted in 2016 – down 4.25%. Farmers intent to plant more Soybeans in 2017, 89.5 mill hac, up from 83.4 million hac planted in 2016, up 7.31%. Wheat planting too is expected to be down to 46.1 mill hac, from 2016 sowing on 50.20 mill hac. Cotton too is expected to be up at 12.2 mill hac from 10.07 mill hac. As farmers get on the fields and the weather permits we will see how these numbers unfold over the next few weeks.

In India, maize arrivals have started in Bihar, the main Rabi maize producer. Prices where were ruling at Rs.15500/Mt on Spot about a month back (feb 24, 2017)  are now at Rs.14550/MT at Gulabbagh (NCDEX Spot) down 6.13%. In last one week however prices moved up bit up 0.34%. Open market price would at Rs.12000-12500/MT, which for a new high moisture corn would be fair price. Prices are fairly stable over one month at other locations, demand continues, Jalgaon Rs.14600/MT, up 2.46% over one month; Davangere and Sangli stable at Rs.16150/MT and Rs.15400/MT respectively.

US Corn Futures - Dec'16- Mar'17Prices of corn in the US continue to be stable for last three week, though in the first week of March there was a price spike, which later stabilised. On Mar 31, 2017, Corn on CBOT closed lower than last month end, but higher than last week. May $143.37/MM up 2.20% against last week; Jul $146.29/MT up 2.16% and Set up 1.12% to $149.28/MT mainly due to lower planting intentions for corn. Early in the week, the prices were down as the prices is Argentina/Brazil is keeping the pressure. FOB prices were indicated at $160/MT (US Gulf) and 4170/MT (PNW). Argentine corn on FOB basis indicated at $163/MT; Brazilian at $162/MT and Black Sea at $170/MT.

On the protein side, DDGS prices on FOB basis have declined in this last one month and currently DDGS is priced at $146/Mt (US Gulf), 7% down over the price indicated on Feb 24, 2017. Delivered price to Vietnam at $185/MT and to China at $178/MT. With rupee appreciating 2.82% in last one month and trading at Rs.64.7236 to a dollar, US DDGS is value for money and could be delivered to an Indian port in West coast at Rs.12350/MT at port. With clearing costs and transport to a feed mill, it should cost no more than Rs.14500/MT (Duty free) and with 28% protein, it would be possibly one of the cheapest protein source and will provide additional 7% fat which will need to be valued. At this time DDGS is priced at 91.25% of corn price on FOB basis. In most of Feb it was 94% of the corn value (FOB) and prices have dipped considerably.

US ethanol prices in one week moved up on CBOT. Apr $0.427/liter; up 4.81%; May $0.4283/Liter, up 3.52%; Jun $0.4243/Liter, up 2.3%; Freight rated Dec'16-Mar'17Jul $0.423/Liter, up 2.24/MT. But with the rupee appreciating 0.88% in this one week, the change in ethanol prices is not much.

Freight rates have continued to move up consistently is last quarter. Benchmark US Gulf-Japan indicated at $39.25/MT; PNW-Japan $21.25/MT; US Gulf-China $38/MT; PNW-China $20.5/MT; Argentina-Brazil to China ranged between $38.25-29.25/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

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India maize price stable, US futures up, FOB down; Ethanol & DDGS are the best buys; India Barley prices up

Reporting from Washington Dulles Airport.

India’s maize prices remain stable, but higher than the world market.  Spot prices in Nizamabad up 1.51% against last week to Rs.14694/MT; Davangere up 1.42%to Rs.16025/MT; Sangli down 1% to Rs.14800/MT and Gulabbagh up 0.46% to Rs.16500/MT. Overall area under Rabi maize is also up, expect a good crop, but a major drop is prices may not be there. Future prices though have shown a decline. Jan down 0.71%to Rs.14030/MT; Feb down 0.76% to Rs.14370/MT; Mar down 1.21% to Rs.14650/MT; Apr stable at Rs.14930/MT and May up 0.33%to Rs.15210/MT.

Mar corn contract Jan 13, 2017While future corn prices have moved up a bit and Mar corn closed 0.11% higher at $141.09/MT; May up 0.22% to $143.85/MT and Jul up 0.27% to $146.61/MT, US FOB prices remain competitive and were down by a $1/MT, indicated at $166/MT (US Gulf) and $178/MT (PNW). The biggest drop though has been in the DDGS prices this week and a drop of $9/MT to $139/MT (US Gulf) and $4/Mt drop to $172/MT (PNW) indicative prices Delivered prices to the main destination in Asia down as well and CNF price to Vietnam dropped $6/Mt to $180/MT and to China by $10/MT to $175/MT. DDGS remains the most optimally priced plant protein today and there is plenty available in the US and at this prices, livestock farmers can take advantage to reduce the feed costs.

India’s barley prices in the last three months have risen by almost Rs.1820/MT, an increase of 11.22% and currently spot prices Spot Barley Prices in India in Rs./100 kgare ruling at Rs.18030/MT at Jaipur. India has imported some stocks from Argentina and France and much cheaper prices (Rs.14000-15000) delivered to Kandla in bulk in the last few months.  US barley prices are currently ranging between $185-190/MT.

US ethanol prices this week have come down and are very competitive in relation to other origins. US ethanol on CBOT for Feb contract was down 5.57%to $0.39/liter; Mar down 4.81% to $398/liter; Apr down 3.61% to $0.403/Liter and May down 2.23% to $0.407/Liter.

Bulk freight rates have been moving up slightly and steadily and the benchmark US Gulf-Japan freight rate was indicated at $35/ MT and PNW-Japan at $18/MT; US Gulf-China quoted at $34/MT and PNW-China at $17.25/MT. Argentina/Brazil to China indicated in the range of $31.50-22.5/MT.

Amit Sachdev, USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

 

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