US corn prices down, crop in good condition; Co-products – DDGS and ethanol prices down

In the US 78% of corn planted is in good-very good condition. The 2017 corn crop continues to be exported and find markets around the world. There are freight issues in Brazil. With the US-China trade conflict, commodity prices are down and while it may not be so good form the farmers/producers, the end users will be able to get good deals. Corn on CBOT dropped by over 1%, Jul down 1.11% to $140.62/MT; Sept down 1.13% to $144.24 per MT; Dec down 1.20% to $148.81/MT. The lower corn prices are also being seen on FOB basis, US Gulf $170 for Aug and $173 for Sept; FOB PNW $187/MT (Aug) and $189 – Sept 2018. Argentine corn was indicated at $173/MT and Brazilian at $174-175/MT on FOB basis.

ON the co-products side, US DDGS prices of FOB basis (USGULF) down 3.81%, down $9 from last week to $227/MT. DDGS train delivered to PNW is indicated at $201/MT down 7.80%. TO South Asian region, DDGS offers price Jun-Aug 2018 $268/MT (Chittagong) down almost $16/Mt from last week. CNF price to Myanmar $264/MT.

US ethanol prices have also seen a dip in the last few weeks and are stable now, but substantially lower than what they were a month ago. Ethanol was indicated on CBOT at $0.3751/Lit for Jul; Aug at $0.3785/Lit; Sept 0.3820/Lit; Oct $0.3812/Lit and Nov $0.3804/Lit. There is enough ethanol in country (India), but still not enough to fulfill the needs. As per data available 1.6-1.7 billion liters of ethanol will be supplied to OMC, against the demand of 3.13 billion liters. If the ethanol supplies are augmented, the country will be able to valuable FOREX, a required octane rated gasoline could be made available at a cheaper price and the OMC would also be sable to save a substantial amount. In the US, when the EBP was introduced, the net savings to the refiners was 1-1.5 cents/octane/gallon. The overall drop was 3 octane points at refinery level and net saving of 3-4.5 US cents/gallon.

US SBM prices have also come down on FOB basis and DDGS on per protein basis is a little cheaper than SBM in the US and hence finds scope in feeds across species.CGM prices in the US have beens table for some time and currently indicated at $585/MT Jul and $585/MT for Aug delivery (FOB).

Indian maize prices remain stable. It is hot in most parts of the country. The sowing is progressing fine, 1.175 mill hac of area has been sown which is a normal for this time. Prices in South India are close to Rs.14500/Mt and in Bihar Rs.11300/MT and there is not much change in the last few weeks.

Amit Sachdev, Serving Agriculture and Livestock in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka * E Mail: asachdev@grains.org

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